Friday, June 04, 2010

Chart of the day, on jobs: OM"f"G :(

It is not at all clear to me how we are going to crawl out of this hole soon.
I worry that we are merely one incident with profound impacts away from a complete economic and social tailspin.  Here is to hoping that such a nightmare scenario will not come about.
What is even more worrisome is the following chart (both charts from Calculated Risk)
"there are a record 6.763 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.38% of the civilian workforce. (note: records started in 1948). It does appear the increases are slowing ..."

The devastating effects on career and personal lives if and when one is unemployed for this long, and still looking for jobs somewhere .... Am all the more thankful for the protected bubble within which I operate ...

Robert Reich is concerned that we are getting very close to a second recessionary dip:
The only reason the economy isn’t in a double-dip recession already is because of three temporary boosts: the federal stimulus (of which 75 percent has been spent), near-zero interest rates (which can’t continue much longer without igniting speculative bubbles), and replacements (consumers have had to replace worn-out cars and appliances, and businesses had to replace worn-down inventories). Oh, and, yes, all those Census workers (who will be out on their ears in a month or so).

But all these boosts will end soon. Then we’re in the dip.
David Leonhardt writes that new federal spending is necessary, but it:
needs to be accompanied by something more credible than Augustine-like vows of future parsimony. It should be paired with substantive cuts to continuing policies, like subsidies for oil companies and agribusinesses, outdated weapons systems, NASA’s moon program and at least some Bush tax cuts, among many other things.
That is the right economic strategy. It’s probably the right political one, too. It shows serious concern about both jobs and the deficit.

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