What a depressing news headline :(

Huge Deficits May Alter U.S. Politics and Global Power

That is the headline over at the NY Times.

My question is this: why the use of "may" and not "will", eh?

American deficits will not return to what are widely considered sustainable levels over the next 10 years. In fact, in 2019 and 2020 — years after Mr. Obama has left the political scene, even if he serves two terms — they start rising again sharply, to more than 5 percent of gross domestic product. His budget draws a picture of a nation that like many American homeowners simply cannot get above water.
For Mr. Obama and his successors, the effect of those projections is clear: Unless miraculous growth, or miraculous political compromises, creates some unforeseen change over the next decade, there is virtually no room for new domestic initiatives for Mr. Obama or his successors. Beyond that lies the possibility that the United States could begin to suffer the same disease that has afflicted Japan over the past decade. As debt grew more rapidly than income, that country’s influence around the world eroded.

Again, where from does the NY Times get an optimism to use "may" instead of "will", you ask?  Well, it is at the tail end:

“Much may depend on whether we put in place the financial reforms that can rebuild a functional financial system,” Mr. Galbraith said, to finance growth in the private sector — the kind of growth that ultimately saved Mr. Clinton from his own deficit projections.
His greatest hope, Mr. Galbraith said, was Stein’s law, named for Herbert Stein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Presidents Richard M. Nixon and Gerald R. Ford.
Stein’s law has been recited in many different versions. But all have a common theme: If a trend cannot continue, it will stop.

I suppose we can expect the dollar to continue to slide down.  Meanwhile, the demographic dynamics of the Euro zone and Japan mean that those economies will slowly lose their influence and so will their currencies.  The Russian demographics are no different.  So, it will all come down to a showdown between China and the US.

And, it does not appear that the Chinese politburo is as stupid as the Soviets were.  Which means chances are pretty good that China will stare us down?  Hmmmm.....

Perhaps I should return to using the line I discontinued, when talking with students: "you are screwed!"