Wednesday, October 03, 2012

On a war that didn't happen, and a war that did, in 1962

October 1962 might remind at least a few Americans of the Cuban missile crisis, which, during the Cold War, pushed the world that much closer to a nuclear armageddon that was, thankfully, averted. At the same time, on the other side of the planet, while nuclear bombs were not involved, two other heavyweights—India and China—did go to war over a number of difficult and unresolved geopolitical issues, which continue to dog them even today.

The short war in 1962, which was disastrous for India, did not resolve these border disputes.  Both India and China continue to claim the northern Himalayan territory of Aksai Chin as theirs, though it is completely under China’s rule now. All the way across, India’s northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh is claimed by China as South Tibet. In addition, the Dalai Lama’s government in exile in India is a reminder of the complications over Tibet.

There is an important reason why these two countries have not waged any more wars in order to plant their respective flags on the other’s lands—they are busy with economic growth and development. Since the late 1970s, China has been on an accelerated path of economic growth, and India has been trying to catch up with its own liberalized policies a decade after China’s reforms began. The two countries are perhaps examples of how much the war chants decrease in volume when there is a healthy and growing trade in goods and services.

The background noise over the unresolved border issues, how much ever it might be muted now, mean that the economic and diplomatic relations between India and China will be of importance not only to the more than two billion people there but to the entire world. The slow thawing of relations between India and Pakistan, which have been characterized by a belligerent sibling rivalry ever since their independence from Britain in 1947, will further enhance the importance of that part of the world.

The United States appears to be recognizing these developments and, in the language of policymakers, is pivoting towards Asia, and China in particular. This is a contrast to the practice during the bad old days of the Cold War, when the focus was on Western Europe, and how to make strategic friendships with the satellite countries. Thus, the non‐aligned India and the communist China were viewed with suspicion then. After the fall of the Soviet Union, which ended the Cold War, it was perhaps only natural that the United States pivoted towards Asia.

I am worried, however, that we are increasingly focused on China for all the wrong reasons. We seem to be interested in the happenings there not because we want to be where the party is going on, but more because we want to make sure that we can quickly checkmate China, which has unresolved territorial disputes with many countries from Russia and Japan in the north down to the Philippines and Vietnam. These geopolitical issues are not anything new, but are carryovers from centuries of China’s dominance when it was an empire and a superpower.

Both the presidential candidates appear to be intent on escalating tensions. Their rhetoric makes it clear that neither one wants to come across as being wimpier than the other when it comes to dealing with China. Further, China seems to be a convenient scapegoat on which the candidates prefer to pin the blame for our economic stagnation, conveniently forgetting to acknowledge how much our own disastrous policies—like the loosened regulations that encouraged bankers to take wild risks—contributed to the Great Recession. If China had a minimal role in causing the Great Recession, one would think that China is not the reason why we continue to be in a funk either, and yet we beat up on our important trading partner more than even going after the rogue bankers!

Political theorists often point out that governments distract their peoples by pointing at enemies, mostly imaginary, on the other side of the border. I hope this is not what our pivot to Asia implies. As India and China have demonstrated to the rest of the world over the fifty years since their only war, disputes might linger, yes, but we can learn to live together.

1 comment:

Ramesh said...

Ahhh. The China question is enormously complicated. At the moment China views India as beneath its dignity and not significant enough to argue with. However, the vein of jingoism and strident nationalism runs deep in China's veins, fuelled by Communist Party and exacerbated by isolationism - even now China is one of the most isolationist of cultures. No foreign media, no access to the popular global sites on the internet are all aggravating this isolationism. Witness the nonsense with Japan on a few rocks. China will suffer much growth pangs as it takes its rightful position on the world stage . Some of those pangs won't be pretty.