Showing posts with label osama bin laden. Show all posts
Showing posts with label osama bin laden. Show all posts

Thursday, December 06, 2012

Che Guevara, the secular jihadist!

As a kid growing up in a left-leaning India, I remember being fascinated with Fidel Castro, and the legends of Che. At a meeting of the Non-Aligned countries, Fidel Castro went on and on, and I am now amazed at how I sat through and watched most of that rant speech on TV!

Then I grew up.

I read about the Soviet Union that Solzhenistyn wrote about, and Orwell's Big Brother.  The older and wiser me couldn't understand the violence that the Stalinists and Maoists inflicted upon their own people, leave alone those on the outside.  The communist regimes were nothing but killers and anti-democratic rulers; Fidel and Che, it turned out, were no different from the violent and maniacal Stalin.
In the decades since 1917, communism has led to more slaughter and suffering than any other cause in human history. Communist regimes on four continents sent an estimated 100 million men, women, and children to their deaths — not out of misplaced zeal in pursuit of a fundamentally beautiful theory, but out of utopian fanaticism and an unquenchable lust for power.
Che's use of violence to achieve his version of utopia is no different from how Osama bin Laden didn't find anything wrong in killing civilians.  Yet, while no rational person would walk around wearing an Osama t-shirt, thousands all across the world, including here in the US, think it is cool to wear a Che t-shirt.  I suppose Osama, too, would have gladly worn a Che t-shirt if only he weren't an infidel!

When The Motorcycle Diaries came out and people we are all gushing about it, I intentionally skipped that movie. I stayed away from engaging in discussions--contrary to my penchant for discussions. I didn't want to come across as an annoying dissenter--because commie sympathizers at any level, as much as the commie leaders like Che, do not appreciate dissenting views.

I wish the world would stop applauding Che and making a saint out of this killer and, instead, remember him for what he was:
The cult of Ernesto Che Guevara is an episode in the moral callousness of our time. Che was a totalitarian. He achieved nothing but disaster.

Thursday, May 05, 2011

bin Laden is dead. Four days. Unwarranted secrecy

In one of the "Mind your language" episodes,  is it Ranjeet or Ali who remarks that he watched the most violent show on television, and when asked for the name of the show he replies, "Tom and Jerry."

Whether it is at the toon level, or in dramatic portrayals, television is super-saturated with images of horror and destruction--sometimes even worse than the ones in real life itself.  And then the movies. Probably the worst of all horrific images are in computer games.

Most of the people on this planet are routinely bombarded with horrific images.  It is, therefore, bizarre to hear the "it is too gory" justification for not releasing OBL's photo. 
Talk about the nanny state

Jack Shafer writes:
I'm for the publication of the pictures because they're an essential part of the war on al-Qaida. Withholding the photos and couching their suppression in the name of national security misjudges what makes al-Qaida tick and infantilizes the nation. It also sets a precedent for "news that's too gruesome to reveal." ...
If a nation can be trusted to view the horrors of 9/11 in real time, flip through the Abu Ghraib picture book, witness the made-for-video murder of Daniel Pearl, see images of dead Uday and Qusay on the evening news, and gaze upon pictures of dead soldiers coming home as air freight (photos that President Bush, incidentally, tried to ban in the name of managing the news), then it can be trusted to stomach the last photos of Osama Bin Laden—and whatever turmoil those photos might cause. Why? Because that's what sort of country the United States is.
The other argument is that releasing the photo would incite anti-American jihad. Oh yeah, wave the "war on terror" banner all over again.

As always, it is only humor that can get me over the hump

Warning: do not eat or drink when watching the following:)

The Colbert ReportMon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Terrorists: They're Just Like Us!
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full EpisodesPolitical Humor & Satire BlogVideo Archive




Wednesday, May 04, 2011

bin Laden dead. Three days later. More questions/concerns

Last evening, I turned the TV on to check if C-Span had anything interesting.  (Yes, that kind of a junkie to willingly watch C-Span, which has been one of the best American media innovations ever. America set an example and even countries like India have their own versions of C-Span now.)

It looked like some kind of a dinner where Obama got up to talk. And he said something about OBL's death. The entire room burst into applause and stood up as well.

I turned the TV off in disgust. I mean, are we not done celebrating that?  Isn't it time to get to the details?  To start asking tough questions?

Apparently not.

I then find out that Obama is heading to NY, to Ground Zero. Come on, enough with the theatrics and let us get on to serious content.

Glenn Greenwald is way ahead of me (when is he not, eh,) and notes how the media folks are happy to parrot any administration's testosterone-filled messages, instead of digging deeper. Greenwald cites TPM's comment on the entire Osama and wife as human shield spin:
Turns out the woman that was killed on the compound wasn't bin Laden's wife. Bin Laden may have not even been using a human shield. And he might not have even been holding a gun.
It is not any surprise then that there are people who think that was not Osama either.

William Saletan has this to say about the administration's false narratives:
The reason U.S. officials bought and sold this story is that it fit their larger indictment of Bin Laden. It reinforced the shameful picture of him hiding in a mansion while sending others to fight and die. It made him look like a coward.
This is the narrative that's really at stake. A narrative isn't just a chronology. It's a tale woven with themes. For 20 years, Bin Laden peddled a tale of oppression and jihad. In elaborate video and audio messages, he depicted al-Qaida's trail of bombings as a Muslim struggle against Western persecution. He wasn't just a terrorist. He was a storyteller.
That's the story Brennan sought to undermine when he cited Bin Laden's use of a human shield to show "how false his narrative has been over the years." Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also targeted Bin Laden's story. In a statement trumpeting his death, she argued that "people across the Middle East and North Africa are rejecting the extremist narratives and charting a path of peaceful progress." Carney, too, warned against false interpretations. "It would be a shame," he warned, if Bin Laden's killing "became a piece in a partisan narrative."
Carney is right. So are Brennan, Clinton, and Cameron. Bin Laden was a delusional mass murderer, and his narrative was false. But you can't debunk one false narrative with another. The firefight at Bin Laden's compound, it now appears, pitted two or three men against a dozen or more commandos. Bin Laden didn't engage in the firefight and used no human shield. He wasn't even armed. We shot him dead anyway. That's the truth. Deal with it.
Well, in other places it would be called propaganda, right?

The more the administration wants to control the flow of information so that it will all be spun in a way it wants, the more this entire thing comes across like Bourne going to kill the African leader in the middle of the night.

The Guardian quotes an American prosecutor at Nuremburg:
Benjamin Ferencz, an American lawyer who was a US prosecutor at the Nuremburg trials and who lives in New York state, asked whether the killing was justifiable self-defence or premeditated illegal assassination. He would have preferred he had been captured and put on trial.
Ferencz, 92, said : "The picture I get is that a bunch of highly trained, heavily armed soldiers find an old guy in pyjamas and shot him in the chest and head and that borders, without access to more facts, on murder." He added: "Even [the head of the Luftwaffe Hermann] Göring had a right to trial."
Attorney General Holder:
"The operation in which Osama bin Laden was killed was lawful," Holder told the Senate Judiciary Committee. "He was the head of al-Qaida, an organization that had conducted the attacks of September 11th. He admitted his involvement and he indicated that he would not be taken alive. The operation against bin Laden was justified as an act of national self defense."
Meanwhile, back in Afghanistan, the wily Hamid Karzai is making use of the political opportunity to distract attention from himself and his corrupt government:
"They didn't find Osama in Logar, they didn't find him in Kandahar," declared Afghan president Hamid Karzai. "They didn’t find him in Badakhsahn, in Kabul or in Parwan. They found him in Abbotabad, in Pakistan," he said.
Although president Karzai made sure he included a word of appreciation for the sacrifices of NATO and the United States, the frustration in his tone was clear. "NATO and the world did not hear our call for ten years," he said. "We burned and burned. Osama was killed in Abbotabad."
There is only one way I can calm myself down then ... with the Daily Show!

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

bin Laden is dead. Two days later ... Now what?

Soon after my first blog-post related to bin Laden's death, a high school classmate from India, who still lives there, commented:
Dont really feel happy or want to congratulate the US for something that they created.
Juan Cole reviews that history my friend refers to, first before he gets to what next:
Usama Bin Laden was a violent product of the Cold War and the Age of Dictators in the Greater Middle East. He passed from the scene at a time when the dictators are falling or trying to avoid falling in the wake of a startling set of largely peaceful mass movements demanding greater democracy and greater social equity. Bin Laden dismissed parliamentary democracy, for which so many Tunisians and Egyptians yearn, as a man-made and fallible system of government, and advocated a return to the medieval Muslim caliphate (a combination of pope and emperor) instead. Only a tiny fringe of Muslims wants such a theocratic dictatorship. The masses who rose up this spring mainly spoke of “nation,” the “people,” “liberty” and “democracy,” all keywords toward which Bin Laden was utterly dismissive. The notorious terrorist turned to techniques of fear-mongering and mass murder to attain his goals in the belief that these methods were the only means by which the Secret Police States of the greater Middle East could be overturned.
Cole's essay is a must read--he even notes how his blog itself began after 9/11.  Cole adds:
if Bush had gone after Bin Laden as single-mindedly as Obama has, he would have gotten him, and could have rolled up al-Qaeda in 2002 or 2003. Instead, Bush’s occupation of a major Arab Muslim country kept a hornet’s nest buzzing against the US, Britain and other allies. Now that Obama has eliminated the monster Usama Bin Laden and vindicated the capability of the United States to visit retribution on its dire enemies, he can do one other great good for this country abroad. He can get us out of Iraq altogether.
Yes. I hope the anti-war Democrats and libertarians will increase the volumes of their demands to end our military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.



I am not sure whether Gaddafi is seeing this OBL story as his moment to use more force when the world is distracted, or as a sure sign of how he himself will end up if he doesn't step aside soon.  Similarly in Yemen, Zimbabwe, ...

How are Obama and Congress going to use this valuable opportunity?  Cole ends his lengthy piece with this:
The Arab Spring has demonstrated that the Arab masses yearn for liberty, not thuggish repression, for life, not death and destruction, for parliamentary democracy, not theocratic dictatorship. Bin Laden was already a dinosaur, a relic of the Cold War and the age of dictators in which a dissident such as he had no place in society and was shunted off to distant, frontier killing fields. The new generation of young Arabs in Egypt and Tunisia has a shot at a decent life. Obama has put the US on the right side of history in Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and Libya (where I see crowds for the first time in my life waving American flags). People might want a little help from a distance, but they don’t want to see Western troops deployed in fighting units on their soil.
If Obama can get us out of Iraq, and if he can use his good offices to keep the pressure on the Egyptian military to lighten up, and if he can support the likely UN declaration of a Palestinian state in September, the US will be in the most favorable position in the Arab world it has had since 1956. And he would go down in history as one of the great presidents. If he tries to stay in Iraq and he takes a stand against Palestine, he risks provoking further anti-American violence. He can be not just the president who killed Bin Laden, but the president who killed the pretexts for radical violence against the US. He can promote the waving of the American flag in major Arab cities. And that would be a defeat and humiliation for Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda more profound than any they could have dreamed.
Quo vadis, Obama?


Hey Libyans, Yemenis, Bahrainis, Tunisians, Egyptians ... we have not forgotten you ...

I read the news today oh boy ...

Yes, The Beatles, of course:
I saw a film today oh boy
The English Army had just won the war
A crowd of people turned away
but I just had to look
No video on YouTube though .... but, the song, yes

The Daily Show and Jon Stewart are hysterically funny in "Bye Bye, Beardie" :)

Chart of the day: Twitter and bin Laden's death

I can relate to this chart--from the moment the media started their speculation that the major address by Obama was related to OBL's death, and for a couple hours after that, I was watching for updates on Twitter ... My first tweet on this was at 8:12 pm PDT, and my final one was at 11:15 pm.  It was simply crazy to follow the news, and to kind of vicariously participate in real-time conversations, on Twitter. Who woulda thunk that!


I feel sorry for all those rebels and protesters in Libya, Yemen, ...their protests have been drowned out in the OBL news.

Monday, May 02, 2011

bin Laden is dead. It is the day after. Now what?

As I went to bed last night, I realized that I had to redo the mental script I had for my classes--some of the students might want to discuss the bin Laden-related events, while some might not care.  Then the question of whether I had a pedagogical responsibility to treat this as a learning opportunity as well.  If a learning opportunity, then what were the lessons to focus on?  How would I then go about discussing those lessons?

Teaching, as I see it, is nothing but editorial decisions everyday.  We select and present materials to students. We interpret the data in the manner in which we prefer--even when we try our best to be impartial, and leave our ideological preferences at home.

As I was driving to work, I figured out a game plan.  My formal teaching/learning moment would be to highlight the importance of understanding of geography.  That we understand that location matters, and the location-related relationships matter.  So, I would use maps of the Indian Subcontinent to tell a story of sorts. But tell a story in a way that draws questions.

However, I wanted to do that as a wrap-up after inviting comments from the students.  But then how would I broach the subject?  I figured I didn't have to worry about this--I was confident that at least a couple of students would jump on this topic even before I got to the computer in the classroom.

It turned out exactly that way. "T" loudly remarked that he wanted to discuss the current events and not our regularly scheduled topics.  "What happened, man?" I asked him with a smile.  "T" said "about last night, and Osama."  And thus we discussed the events. For 45 minutes. Including recalling where we were on that fateful 9/11. "T" asked whether it was ok to publicly celebrate--apparently a few had expressed displeasure at the celebrations.  "Go ahead and celebrate" I told him. "Bin Laden has killed tens of thousands, including thousands of Muslims" I added.

At the end, I reminded the class that all politics aside, we owe a thanks to the military.  I asked those who had served to stand so that we could thank them. One stood. We clapped. And then I asked all those with friends and families who have served in the military to stand. With the exception of a couple of students, the entire class stood up.

And, with that we took a break, and then I did my spiel on geography, location, and relationships. At the end of it all, we had only 20 minutes out of the 110-minute session to talk about resources, which was the topic for the day.

As the students were exiting, "T" paused for a second and said, "thanks for allowing us to talk about this for more than half the class time."  

I wonder whether the students know that I hate violence. I hate wars. I have never touched a gun in my life. Not even a bullet. I hope that I will never, ever, touch any of those killing machines.  A friend, "P," when I told him about these views a few years ago, thought it was a noble to goal to set for oneself--to not ever go anywhere near those weapons of destruction. He should know--he is a Vietnam veteran!

But, does it matter whether or not students know what my personal preferences are?  I tell you, teaching is immensely tougher than what it seems from the outside.

I am glad though that Osama bin Laden is gone. Capturing him, then trying him in a regular court--not one of those Guantanamo circus cages--would have been my preferred option. While I hate the death penalty, I recognize that it is legal in this country.  Bin Laden would have been sentenced to death after the due process.


So, it is now the day after. It is not as if we now revert to the halcyon days of September 10, 2001.  There is simply no there there. But, there are a few things I hope Obama, the Democrats, and the Republicans will start thinking about. Such as the ones that Dahlia Lithwick writes about:
About all we can say with certainty is this: We tortured. We live in a world in which we must contend with information obtained by torture. We now need to decide whether we want to continue to live that way. Writers from ideological backgrounds as diverse as Matt Yglesias and Ross Douthat argue that it is time to return to the paradigm abandoned after 9/11. Let's put the 9/11 attacks and the existential threat it created behind us. With Bin Laden's death, let's simply agree that the objectives of the Bush administration's massive anti-terror campaign have finally been achieved, and that the time for extra-legal, extra-judicial government programs—from torture, to illegal surveillance, to indefinite detention, to secret trials, to nontrials, to the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay—has now passed. There will be no better marker for the end of this era. There will be no better time to inform the world that our flirtation with a system of shadow-laws was merely situational and that the situation now is over. ...

The "war on terror" language was always metaphorical, I realize, but it unloosed a very real Pandora's box of injustice on a nation that prides itself on its notions of fairness. That makes the highly symbolic death of Bin Laden an apt time—perhaps the last apt time—to ask whether this state of affairs is to be temporary or permanent. If President Obama truly believes, as he said last night, that justice has finally been done, he should use this opportunity to restore the central role of the rule of law in achieving justice in the future.
And, can we please start complete withdrawal of the military from Afghanistan? And not get all too entangled in Libya?  And reduce defense spending so that we can provide better social safety nets?


As the month draws to a close, I will have yet another learning opportunity--"Memorial Day."  But, I don't do any talking in class for that--like in the years past, all I have to do is update my slides of images of Oregon's soldiers who have been killed in Iraq and Afghanistan. A very quiet automated slide-show for ten minutes. That always leaves me drained, emotionally and physically.

What was Osama bin Laden doing when the Navy Seals came knocking?

America's Finest News Source has the "scoop" on it:
NEW YORK—Osama bin Laden, 54-year-old leader of the international terrorist group al-Qaeda and mastermind of the 9/11 attacks that took nearly 3,000 American lives in 2001, was killed early Monday morning in Pakistan while sitting on the toilet, the U.S. populace took great pleasure in imagining today. “Just thinking about the stupid look on that evil bastard’s face when those Navy SEALs kicked in the bathroom door and started blasting away—it’s so totally priceless,” said Queens, NY resident Rachel Sumner, one of 311 million Americans who reveled in a fictional scenario in which bin Laden met his gruesome and humiliating end while sitting on the commode, humming to himself, and reading a newspaper. “And him frantically trying to pull up his boxer shorts seconds before some badass Special Forces guy blows his head off—ha, ha! What a fucking moron.” Some Americans have disputed this fabricated version of bin Laden’s death, explaining they prefer to imagine the terrorist leader being surprised by Navy SEALs while wearing bright red lipstick, trying on ladies’ clothing, sashaying in front of a full-length mirror, and saying, “Who’s the prettiest little girl? Osama's the prettiest little girl!”
Everything will be fine as long as our sense of humor and satire never go away, nor are curtailed ...
A bonus: a slideshow on OBL :)

On a serious analysis, Christopher Hitchens employs his verbal skills:
we won't have to put up with a smirking video when the 10th anniversary of his best-known atrocity comes around. Come to think of it, though, he hadn't issued any major communiqués on any subject lately (making me wonder, some time ago, if he hadn't actually died or been accidentally killed already), and the really hateful work of his group and his ideology was being carried out by a successor generation like his incomparably more ruthless clone in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. I find myself hoping that, like Zarqawi, Bin Laden had a few moments at the end to realize who it was who had found him and to wonder who the traitor had been. That would be something. Not much, but something.
A vast number of questions remain to be answered ... by this administration and the previous ones ... I favor Jack Shafer's reminder on this:
the fog of breaking news almost always cloaks the truth, especially when the deadline news event is a super-top-secret military operation conducted by commandos halfway around the world and the sources of the sexiest information go unnamed.

bin Laden and the Pakistan connection

A high school classmate, who now lives in India after quite a few years here in the US, comments in his Facebook page on the American forces taking out bin Laden well inside Pakistan, this close to its capital and military facilities:
The beginning of recognition for Pakistan's army as a terrorist organization...
The Pakistani military-ISI-terrorism angle will come under intense scrutiny, within that country, in India, in the US and around the world.  The Times of India notes:
top US officials have openly suggested for months that the Pakistani military establishment was hiding bin Laden. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came closest to publicly exposing Pakistan's role last May when she accused some government officials there of harboring Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar.

''I am not saying they are at the highest level...but I believe somewhere in this government are people who know where Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida and where Mullah Omar and the leadership of the Taliban are,'' Clinton said on May 10 last year, adding, ''We expect more cooperation (from Pakistan) to help us bring to justice capture or kill those who brought us 9/11.''

Taken together with President Obama's pointed reference to President Zardari and leaving out any mention of Pakistani forces' involvement, it would seem that Washington believes that Pakistan's military intelligence establishment, including the ISI, was sheltering bin Laden. The ISI was accused as recently as last week by the top US military official Admiral Mike Mullen of having terrorist links, and named as a terrorist support entity by US officials, according to the Guantanamo cables.

Lending credence to the charges is the fact that US forces homed in on bin Laden in Abbottabad, which is a cantonment just 50 kms from Islamabad, where the Pakistani military has a strong presence. The place where bin Laden was killed is only kilometers from the Kakul military academy, where many Pakistani military elites, including some of its ISI cadres, graduate from.

While US officials are tightlipped about precise details, analysts are trying to figure out whether the compound that sheltered bin Laden was an ISI safehouse. There is also speculation as to whether Hillary Clinton was referring to this when she made her pointed remarks last May.

US officials have said for years that they believed bin Laden escaped to Pakistan after the American bombing campaign in Afghanistan. But Pakistani officials, including its former military ruler Pervez Musharraf, insisted that he was in Afghanistan, even as Afghan officials would angrily refute it and say he is in Pakistan. In the end, the Americans and Afghans were right on the money.

A few minutes after President Obama's address to the country, world actually, I called my parents, who live in India. 

It was about 930 in the morning there and, of course, like normal people they were not watching television at the early time of the day.  Mom hoped that it would not be a case of Ravana and his heads :)

India's minister wasted no time in reminding the world about this serious Pakistani nexus:
India today said the killing of global terrorist Osama bin Laden was a matter of grave concern as it proved that terrorists belonging to different groups find sanctuary in Pakistan.
Union Home Minister P Chidambaram said in a statement that perpetrators of the Mumbai terror attacks, including the controllers and handlers of the terrorists, continue to be sheltered in Pakistan.
He said that earlier today the U.S. government informed New Delhi that Osama bin Laden had been killed by security forces somewhere “deep inside Pakistan.”
“After the September 11, 2001 terror attack, the U.S. had a reason to seek Osama bin Laden and bring him and his accomplices to justice,” the statement said.
“We take note with grave concern that part of the statement in which President (Barack) Obama said that the fire fight in which Osama bin Laden was killed took place in Abbotabad ‘deep inside Pakistan’
“This fact underlines our concern that terrorists belonging to different organisations find sanctuary in Pakistan,” he said.
The Home Minister said in the wake of this incident “we believe that perpetrators of the Mumbai terror attacks, including the controllers and handlers of the terrorists who actually carried out the attack, continue to be sheltered in Pakistan.
“We once again call upon the Government of Pakistan to arrest the persons whose names have been handed over to the Interior Minister of Pakistan as well as provide voice samples of certain persons who are suspected to be among the controllers and handlers of the terrorists.”
Oh ... I have a class to teach ...

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

War is now Peace? :-(

As always, Glenn Greenwald is sharp and clear in his analysis.  Greenwald does a fantastic--and absolutely depressing--comparison of Bush's rhetoric with Iraq and Obama's with Afghanistan.  It is way too good to excerpt, and is a must read.

Greenwald ends it with this comment:
Obama is scheduled to receive his Nobel Peace Prize next week in Oslo.  No matter your views on Afghanistan, and no matter your views on whether he deserved the Prize, is there anyone who disputes that there is some obvious tension between his escalating this war and his receiving this Prize?  Unless one believes that War is Peace, how could there not be?
I wonder what the rhetoric will be at Oslo at the acceptance speech ....
It is hard not to be critical, when I have been critical of this war mania even under the previous administration.  I joke with my students that I am an equal opportunity critic.  Greenwald throws a lifeline for me:
The most bizarre defense of Obama's escalation is also one of the most common:  since he promised during the campaign to escalate in Afghanistan, it's unfair to criticize him for it now -- as though policies which are advocated during a campaign are subsequently immunized from criticism.  For those invoking this defense:  in 2004, Bush ran for re-election by vowing to prosecute the war in Iraq, keep Guantanamo open, and "reform" privatize Social Security.  When he won and then did those things (or tried to), did you refrain from criticizing those policies on the ground that he promised to do them during the campaign?  I highly doubt it.
Well, as long as we at least nab Osama bin Laden

Monday, November 30, 2009

D-Day in the Afghan War

President Obama nears his decision time, and Fred Kaplan's column explains well why this is a tough decision to make:
when it comes to this war, I am the one thing that a columnist probably shouldn't be—ambivalent. I've studied all the pros and cons. There are valid arguments to justify each side of the issue, and there are still more valid arguments to slap each side down. And if the basic decision were left up to me, I'm not sure what I would do.
His parting paragraph is awesome:
My guess is that President Obama held so many meetings with his national-security advisers on this topic—nine, plus a 10th on Sunday night to get their orders and talking points straight—because he wanted to break through his own ambivalences; because he needed to come up with a reason (not just a rationalization) for doing whatever it is that he's decided to do, some assurance that it really does make sense, that it has a chance of working, so he can defend it to Congress, the nation, and the world with conviction. Let's hope he found something. A columnist can be ambivalent; a president can't be.
Meanwhile, Pakistan has a few decisions to make as well--on its own, and in response to whatever Obama reveals tomorrow.  Christopher Hitchens sums it up really well:
When the throat-slitters and school-burners and woman-stoners come to the villagers of Pakistan and Afghanistan at dead of night, they have one great psychological advantage. "One day, the Americans and the Europeans will go," they say. "But we will always be here." There's some truth in this: Most of the talk in this country is now of an "exit strategy," and for all the good they are doing, most of the other NATO contingents might as well have shipped out already. But if the United States was to upgrade and cement an economic, military, and political alliance with the emerging giant in New Delhi, we could guarantee without any boasting that our presence in the area was enduring and unbudgeable. It would also be based more on mutual friendship and common values and less on the humiliating practice of bribery and cajolery. And the Pakistani elite would have to decide which was its true enemy: the Taliban/al-Qaida alliance or the Indo-American one.
What a mess.  But, the last thing we needed at this critical juncture was an inane demand from the UK that Pakistan do more to apprehend bin Laden.  What was Brown smoking?

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

What if Obama captures Osama?

The GOP is in shreds. What might be the ultimate proverbial nail in the coffin here? The capture of Osama bin Laden--dead or alive.
  • It is not unrealistic. It looks like Pakistan's government and military are really following up on the understanding that their country is at risk, and are now expanding their all-out-assault even beyond Swat Valley, into the tribal areas where bin Laden might be living. Of course, I want to see the action happen in order to believe that Zardari and his people are serious about it--there is always the possibility that they are putting on a show in order to shake loose a few more billion from the US government.
  • "Defence" has always been the GOP's mantra as their qualification, and the Democrats' liability. So, it will be quite a counter to that if the "liberal" Obama ends up capturing bin Laden, something that Bush/Cheney/GOP could not. The GOP then loses its ultimate, maybe its one and only, political asset. And when that is gone, well, the GOP is gone, for all purposes. It will be quite an effort for Republicans to reshape their party.
  • Which means that gerrymandered seats will be the only way Republicans will be able to make their voices heard in the House of Reps. Senate elections being state-wide elections, well, Republicans will be screwed. Senate seats and governorships will come down to individual personalities and charisma. Presidency? They may as well forget until 2016, at the earliest, and 2020 is more realistic.
  • I am sure Obama and his people are acutely aware of this. After all, if I can think along this logic!!! I wonder if this, too, is the reason why there is so much of a focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan now. I would not be suprised at all, if such political considerations have influenced their decision as much as genuine national security reasons have. In fact, I say there is nothing wrong in that: after all, bin Laden is the #1 most wanted criminal.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Osama bin Laden located

[Osama bin Laden] must have traveled 3.1 km over an approximately 4,000 meter pass in winter to enter Kurram, Pakistan. Doing so would have been extremely difficult for a 44-year old man with diabetes. Kurram is surrounded on three sides by the Afghan border (known as the Durand Line), which essentially cuts right though the ethnically Pushtun belt that straddles it.
....
the US intelligence community could make public a report based on all data collected from 2001 to 2006 [and] ... should also disprove the hypotheses that Osama bin Laden is: (1) located in the Kurram region of Pakistan, (2) located in the city of Parachinar, and (3) at one of the three hypothesized buildings.
That is from two UCLA geographers, Thomas W. Gillespie and John A. Agnew, based on an innovative study where they
use biogeographic theories associated with the distribution of life and extinction (distance-decay theory, island biogeography theory, and life history characteristics) and remote sensing data (Landsat ETM+, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Defense Meteorological Satellite, QuickBird) over three spatial scales (global, regional, local) to identify where bin Laden is most probably currently located.
Not bad, eh! And you thought geography was only about states and capitals :-)

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Elections, and the possibility of a dead Osama bin Laden

Given that elections are now just over 50 days away, how much will things change if the US incursions into Pakistan yield Osama himself--dead or alive--or even al Qaeda's number two man-Zawahiri?

It is not outside the domains of possibility. But, imagine for a moment that happens--even as late as the Monday before elections. The global implications will be HUGE--far more than influencing the elections here on November 4th.

For starters, nabbing bin Laden or Zawahiri will just swing the elections to the Republican side. Not only the presidential elections, but even the Congressional seats. Every Democrat who opposed Bush's approach on the war on terror will pretty much be on an ejection seat. While as loyal citizens, Democrats will be thrilled with the capture of bin Laden or Zawahiri, I am guessing this will be ultimate nightmare scenario.
(I think early voting might make all the difference then. I suspect Democrats will urge their faithful to vote as early as possible--taking such a scenario also into consideration.)

Not only will Republicans end up winning it all, it might then take Democrats more than a decade to recover and gain any significant political strength. Conservatives would have completely taken over the Supreme Court by then.

If such a scenario unfolds, then we can expect Britain's Labour Party to be thrashed at the polls. Gordon Brown is a weak leader even now. We can also expect tough-on-terrorists parties to sweep elections in continental Europe. This will also strengthen Putin and Medvedev, who think that anybody who disagrees with them is a terrorist.

Israel will be tempted to become even more aggressive towards Syria, Hezbollah, and Iran. In turn, Iran will feel even more threatened and could start volleying missiles in the Strait of Hormuz, and shut down oil shipping for weeks.

Many Islamic countries will have to deal with a public face of being happy that the terrorists were caught, but will have to deal with the internal displeasure from a significant percentage of their citizenry that won't be happy if bin Laden is caught or found dead.

And, given that the world's economy is quite in doldrums now, I can only imagine that this (more so if Iran shuts down Hormuz even for a month) will trigger a global economic depression.

My own personal preferences aside, as an academic interested in politics and public policy, this is a scenario that completely fascinates me.