Immigrants and Project Lightspeed

The tRump regime--"administration" doesn't really describe it--loudly and openly beat up on immigrants and Muslims.  Remember how one of the first things he tried to do was a blatant Muslim ban?  He then had to scale it down and pretend it was not really a Muslim ban when it was.

During those dark days, social media--from the anti-tRump side--pointed out how Apple might not have happened if a certain Syrian immigrant had not come to the US.  Steve Jobs' biological father, Abdulfattah Jandali, was an Arab Muslim from Syria, who came to the US to pursue a PhD.

Now, it is another Muslim immigrant to the rescue.  Make that two immigrants.  Not here in the US, but in Germany.  But, it is also an American story.

Scientists have greeted with cautious optimism a press release declaring positive interim results from a coronavirus vaccine phase III trial — the first to report on the final round of human testing.

New York City-based drug company Pfizer made the announcement on 9 November. It offers the first compelling evidence that a vaccine can prevent COVID-19 — and bodes well for other COVID-19 vaccines in development.

Pfizer being a US-based company.  But, the immigrants who provided the scientific breakthrough are not here.  They are in Germany, born to Turkish immigrants.

Dr. [Ugur] Sahin, 55, was born in Iskenderun, Turkey. When he was 4, his family moved to Cologne, Germany, where his parents worked at a Ford factory. He grew up wanting to be a doctor, and became a physician at the University of Cologne. In 1993, he earned a doctorate from the university for his work on immunotherapy in tumor cells.

Early in his career, he met Dr. [Özlem] Türeci. She had early hopes to become a nun and ultimately wound up studying medicine. Dr. Türeci, now 53 and the chief medical officer of BioNTech, was born in Germany, the daughter of a Turkish physician who immigrated from Istanbul.

BioNTech is the firm that the couple founded.

BioNTech began work on the vaccine in January, after Dr. Sahin read an article in the medical journal The Lancet that left him convinced that the coronavirus, at the time spreading quickly in parts of China, would explode into a full-blown pandemic. Scientists at the company, based in Mainz, Germany, canceled vacations and set to work on what they called Project Lightspeed.

They partnered with Pfizer, whose CEO is Greek!

Albert Bourla was born and raised in Thessaloniki, Greece.^[2] Born into a Jewish family, he earned his doctorate in the biotechnology of reproduction at Aristotle University of Thessaloniki's Veterinary School.^[3] He left Greece with his wife when he was 34 and since then he has lived in seven different cities, in four different countries.

The tRump regime eagerly broadcast the Pfizer success as one that was made possible through its Operation Warp Speed.  Controversies are in plenty on how much Warp Speed really made it possible.  Whatever that might be, did the regime say anything about how it was immigrants who created this success?  Did the regime say anything about the Turkish Muslim backgrounds of the two scientists in Germany?

I am glad that the fucking tRump regime is on its way out, though they will torch everything they possibly can during the exit.  I can only hope that we Americans have inoculated ourselves against that kind of a political virus.

Meanwhile, I hope that the Pfizer vaccine and the others under development will deliver us from the global pandemic in a matter of mere months from now.

Shame on us! :(

Maybe I should simply give up on understanding anything that goes on in this world.

Consider, for instance, the war in Syria.  And the refugee crisis:

Source

When the numbers are in hundreds of thousands, we easily forget what every one of those fellow humans mean.  One of those who made it out of the country, but not alive, was this toddler:

Source

The Guardian, from where I grabbed that photograph, reports:

The full horror of the human tragedy unfolding on the shores of Europe was brought home on Wednesday as images of the lifeless body of a young boy – one of at least 12 Syrians who drowned attempting to reach the Greek island of Kos – encapsulated the extraordinary risks refugees are taking to reach the west.
The picture, taken on Wednesday morning, depicted the dark-haired toddler, wearing a bright-red T-shirt and shorts, washed up on a beach, lying face down in the surf not far from Turkey’s fashionable resort town of Bodrum. 

That image haunts me. It should haunt every one of us.

Turkish media identified the boy as three-year-old Aylan Kurdi and reported that his five-year-old brother had also met a similar death. Both had reportedly hailed from the northern Syrian town of Kobani, the site of fierce fighting between Islamic state insurgents and Kurdish forces earlier this year.

 There is something seriously wrong with the world.  A world in which here in the US we are fixated on Donald trump's latest theatrics.  Nicholas Carr writes:

It’s worth asking, though, what kind of democracy is being promoted. Early digital enthusiasts assumed that the web, by freeing the masses from TV news producers and other media gatekeepers, would engender a deeper national conversation. We the people would take control of the discussion. We’d go online to read position papers, seek out diverse viewpoints and engage in spirited policy debates. The body politic would get fit.
It was a pretty thought, but it reflected an idealized view both of human nature and of communication media.

Seriously, is it worth calling ourselves the greatest country that the planet has ever known when we pay immensely more attention to Trump than to a grave humanitarian crisis that resulted in the three-year old dead, face down on the beach?  WTF!

Because it simplifies and speeds up communications, the formulaic quality of social media is well suited to the banter that takes place among friends. Clicking a heart symbol may be the perfect way to judge the worth of an Instagrammed selfie (or even a presidential snapshot). But when applied to political speech, the same constraints can be pernicious, inspiring superficiality rather than depth. Political discourse rarely benefits from templates and routines. It becomes most valuable when it involves careful deliberation, an attention to detail and subtle and open-ended critical thought—the kinds of things that social media tends to frustrate rather than promote.

As the NY Times notes, people have tweeted and Facebooked about that haunting image of the three-year old dead boy.  But, at best, people click "like" and move on to a video of a cat playing the piano.  We seem to have lost even the little bit of a common sense and a shared space where we engaged in deeper conversations.  What is wrong with us?

That was a toddler!  I have no hope that the image will make us collectively think about the four million refugees who are alive ... I give up.

A kid.
A three-year old.

Caption at the source:

 A Turkish police officer carries a young boy who drowned in a failed attempt to sail to the Greek island of Kos. 

When an unemployed PhD meets with his employed PhD friend ...

I heard the following joke yesterday on public radio, in the context of the crisis in Greece.

Two guys completed grad school together as they worked on their PhDs. One found a job and the other is unemployed.
The jobless PhD decides to meet with the employed PhD at his work place.
After a few minutes of chit-chat, the employed PhD has to return to work, and asks the jobless one, "would you like fries with your order?"

Yes, this is a re-working of an often repeated joke about liberal arts degrees here in the US.  But, yet another tragic-comedic reminder of the academic credential inflation all over the world.

I liked the other joke also in the same news segment: (at least, this is what I recall)

Did you know that the Greek finance minister was awarded the Nobel Prize in chemistry?  It was for turning the Euro into shit :)

We can only laugh at all the insanity that surrounds us.  Else, the option is to jump off the nearest cliff and that ain't attractive :(

The Greek (debt) Tragedy: A Euro Sirtaki

And here is Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini's take on the Greek events and the global economy:

If what is happening now turns out to be something worse than a temporary soft patch, the market correction will continue further, thus weakening growth as the negative wealth effects of falling equity markets reduce private spending. And, unlike in 2007-2010, when every negative shock and market downturn was countered by more policy action by governments, this time around policymakers are running out of ammunition, and thus may be unable to trigger more asset reflation and jump-start the real economy.
This lack of policy bullets is reflected in most advanced economies’ embrace of some form of austerity, in order to avoid a fiscal train wreck down the line. Public debt is already high, and many sovereigns are near distress, so governments’ ability to backstop their banks via more bailouts, guarantees, and ring-fencing of questionable assets is severely constrained. Another round of so-called “quantitative easing” by monetary authorities may not occur as inflation is rising – albeit slowly – in most advanced economies.
If the latest global economic data reflect something more serious than a hiccup, and markets and economies continue to slow, policymakers could well find themselves empty-handed. If that happens, the risk of stall speed or an outright double-dip recession would rise sharply in many advanced economies.

Opa!

Federal Debt: The US is no PIGS

I am probably worried more than the average American is when it comes to federal debt.

But, listening to news reports, I am concerned that they could mislead many of my fellow citizens into thinking that all the trillions and trillions of government debt is owned by foreigners. (editor: there is your problem--listening to the news!)

Note that the most significant part of this pie is owned locally.  As Reason put it in its typically sarcastic tone, "70 percent of the debt is held by domestic suckers and by elements of our trusted and trustworthy government."

This domestic versus external debt makes a hell of a difference.  Greece or Ireland is in trouble because of the overwhelming proportion of external debts, as in the figure below:

 It is highly probably that Paul Krugman wrote about this and I missed out on it; damn!

That we should begin to slim down the debt, by tackling the underlying causes, is a no-brainer.  The questions are how and, more importantly, when?  I am not sure if this is the right time to start a dramatic diet overhaul.

Oregon is Pakistan. So, Washington is Greece?

From The Economist: (more at this interactive site)

The miseducation of rioting European students

So, there are student protests in Britain and in Continental Europe as well.  Apparently more protests are planned.  It is because of fee increases, which were triggered by the spiraling budget problems, except perhaps in cash-rich Germany.

I am not sure whether these protests are any sensible and rational behavior by students, and seems more like anarchic outpourings, like what we used to see at the annual meetings of the WTO or the IMF. 

I mean, these students should go after their parents and grandparents who gave themselves rich retirement and other benefits, which otherwise could have gone into subsidizing education. 

The citizens of many European countries have for decades had a social contract with their governments: The people pay absurd levels of taxes and the government takes care of them from cradle to grave. Nationalized healthcare, Ample pensions. Hefty labor rights. Early retirement. Generous unemployment benefits. But can this contract survive the euro crisis? The heavy obligations imposed on European government budgets by the welfare system were already set to become even heavier as Europe's population ages. That means fewer working age and taxpaying Europeans will have to support a greater number of retired old timers. Now here comes the euro crisis, in which the stability of the national finances of European states have come into focus. That's going to put extra pressure on European governments to keep their debt and deficits under control.

Heather Mac Donald writes:

What a boon to anarchy—having your self-righteous tantrums treated as important and newsworthy.  I don’t know how to break out of the dilemma that all such preening displays of lawlessness pose.  Ideally, they would not command any breathless coverage from reporters who come running, cameras flashing, at the slightest hint of revolt against the “establishment.”  Pretending that such theatrics are significant is especially galling when the protesters are ignorant students who don’t understand anything about the world and certainly not about work and commerce.  Yet at some level one does need to know  what is going on.  Perhaps photos of riots against common-sense government reforms or good-faith police actions could be balanced by photos of businessmen struggling to balance their books while drowning in a sclerotic, state-sodden economy.

The commentary at Spiked is, as always, an interesting contrarian read:

The excited student protestors first imagined that smashing an office window was a victory over ‘Tory scum’, and then did their victory dance in front of the banks of cameras (there apparently being as many photographers as rioters present) without trying to conceal their identities. More than a few of them will soon be facing up to the consequences of their naivety as prosecutors study the film for evidence. Cynics have observed that it is a sad reflection on the miseducation of the nation’s youth that some seem to think you riot first, then put the masks on afterwards. Don’t these young adults know how to dress themselves? They also failed geography, attacking the wrong building - because they assumed that the Conservative HQ was still in Millbank Tower - before they realised it had moved down the road.
But if anything, Her Majesty’s finest in the Metropolitan Police looked even more out of their depth. Police commanders more used to looking tough in a press conference than fighting street battles appeared never to have thought that there might be any unpleasantness at a demonstration involving thousands of pissed-off young people. Nor did it seem to have occurred to them that Prime Minister Cameron’s Conservative Party might just become a target for the anger.

Soccer mania: 1982, Brazil, and Socrates

All I remember from that World Cup was one name: Socrates.  It was a simply awesome tournament ... TV was just about being introduced then in the part of India where I lived, and it was the good ol' newspaper and radio that we had to work with.  I wonder if that made it all the more exciting, come to think of it ...
Here is a clip of one of those classic Socrates' goals from that tournament

Guess what happened to Socrates?

Sócrates is a doctor of medicine, a rare achievement for a professional footballer (he is a graduate of the Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto). Even rarer is the fact that he earned the degree while concurrently playing professional football. There are persistent rumours that Sócrates turned out for the University College Dublin. However, the player himself has denied this saying that he has never even been to Dublin^{[citation needed]}.
He is also noted for being an intellectual (he holds a doctorate degree in philosophy), a heavy drinker and smoker, and for his height (193 cm, 6 ft 4 in).

Well, thinking about soccer, and Socrates reminded me of this Monty Python gem: Germany v. Greece :)

The Greek Tragedy, or if PIIGS could fly!

The Eurozone crisis is essentially:

I owe you
You owe me
We owe each other

this image is worth more than a few thousand words (ht):

Headline of the day about Greece

'Nothing Justifies Kicking Greece out of the Euro Zone'
I am not making this up; that is the very headline at Der Spiegel!

Merkel has rejected a debate about ejecting Greece from the euro zone. "It is about a quick reaction in favor of the euro's stability as a whole. Everything else is a distraction."
In Monday's newspapers, German commentators are divided over whether the country's taxpayers should be forking out for the debts of other European nations and whether it may be time to contemplate kicking Greece out of the euro zone. 

First Iceland. Then Greece. Next Portugal? And Euro dies?

That listing of countries might be a wonderful vacation schedule.  But, that seems to be the path of the European contagion ...
First, this news update: Greece's bond rating now means that one can expect only 30 cents on the dollar.  I bet there are quite a few Greeks who are now lamenting the gazillions spent on hosting the Olympics in 2004.  How much did they spend?  Ahem:

the overall cost (state and private funding) was estimated to reach 8.954 billion euro, not including the cost of projects that were completed or the construction of which were accelerated due to the Games, but which had been planned for construction regardless of the Games. Those projects included the Attiki Road highway, Athens' new Eleftherios Venizelos international airport, the tram, and the suburban railway. Of that 8.954 billion euro total, an estimated 7.202 billion was footed by the State, with the remaining 1.752 billion euro coming from the Athens 2004 Organizing Committee (ATHOC) and financed by the committee's revenues from ticket sales, television broadcast rights, Olympic-logo product sales, and sponsorships.

If we count all those investments "regardless" of the Games, well, let us round it up to 10 billion euros.  That was six years ago.  So, factor in inflation as well.  All it means is this: if Greece hadn't wasted away that precious euros, it would not be facing this disastrous scenario of not enough cash to pay the piper, eh! 
Of course, Greece's debts are way more than 10 billion euros.  But, my point is that having debt is one thing, but not being able to make payments is another.

It is not the Olympics aspect that Krugman writes about though.  He has far more profound things to say:

Greece seems to be spiraling over the edge into default; I just don’t know how it steps back from that edge now. Might it also leave the euro? That would be a total mess, inviting the mother of all bank runs

These developments could even make the Goldman Sachs folks respectable and responsible :)  Talk about timing!

Anyway, Hitchens' bottom line is pretty much simple: I told you so!  Apparently he did write that the Euro was not bound to last:

In the summer of 2005, Foreign Policy magazine asked its contributors to name one taken-for-granted thing that they thought was overrated or would not last. After a brief interval of reflection, I chose the euro.

A better prediction that Fukuyama's "the end of history" ...
Anyway, Hitchens writes:

How tragic it is that the euro system has already, in effect, become a two-tier one and that the bottom tier is occupied by the very countries—Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland—that benefited most from their accession to the European Union. The shady way in which Greece behaved in concealing its debts, and the drunken-sailor manner in which other smaller states managed their budgets, has, of course, offended the Germans. It is openly said in Germany now that it would be better to bring back the deutsche mark than to be bailing out quasi-indigent and thriftless banana republics.

Well, this is the same stuff that Krugman refers to the "cohesion crisis"
So, will Greece exit the Euro?  Not so fast, cautions this report:

The most drastic solution - abandoning the euro as a prelude to devaluation - would not change the requirement to cut the twin deficits since short-term export competitiveness is not the key issue and opportunities to boost exports (including tourism) are quite limited, especially as the European economy remains weak.  Those who see euro exit as attractive should also recall the instability generated by historic episodes of devaluation.

Hmmm .... we will be in this for a long time ... hold on to your wallet, home, kids, ....

Questions I would rather not see as headlines ...

... but, here they are at Slate.com:
Can California Declare Bankruptcy? What about Greece?
Isn't that exciting!  How the heck did we reach such a juncture?

California passed a gas tax last week to help make up for its nearly $20 billion budget gap, the latest in a series of measures to right the state's teetering economy. The country of Greece is in even worse shape, with accumulated debt higher than 110 percent of GDP, set to reach 125 percent this year. Can a state declare bankruptcy? Can a country?

You are thinking, hey, declare bankruptcy and start all over!  Gold Rush, Part II.  Of course, California cannot declare bankruptcy. 

Greece is in a slightly different situation. There's no international bankruptcy court for countries that can't pay their debts. Instead, other EU countries that depend on Greece's solvency, such as Germany or France, would have to agree to bail it out. (When the economy of one member of the Eurozone sinks, it drags the euro down across the continent.)

Anne Applebaum writes that Germany is sick and tired of bailing out ailing Euro economies.  Further more, the deficit countries seem to be partying away, while Germany is working hard to save:

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Germany's deeply serious paper of record, has pointed out that while the Greeks are out protesting the raising of the pension age from 61 to 63, Germany recently raised its pension age from 65 to 67: "Does that mean that the Germans should in future extend the working age from 67 to 69, so that Greeks can enjoy their retirement?'

But, there is more to this Greek Tragedy than that meets the eye, according to Applebaum:

Germany is now run by a generation with no personal memories of the war. Germany's historical debate is now focused on the fate of Germans who suffered from wartime bombing and postwar deportation, not with the fate of Germany's victims—in Greece or anywhere else. Sooner or later, the Germans will collectively decide that enough sacrifices have been made and that the debt to Europe has been paid. Thanks to the ungrateful Greeks with their island villas and large pensions, that day may arrive more quickly that we thought it would.

Oh well ... dance away, Zorba :)

Greece: the crisis musical :)

A pictorial statement, worth more than a thousand words, on the Greece/EU/Euro issues :)

What, me worry? Naaaah :(

Richard Posner summarizes the state of the economy:

The United States has a deeply wounded economy. At this writing, transfer payments by the government to individuals and families (Social Security, unemployment benefits, tax credits, etc.) exceed the taxes being collected from the household sector. At the same time, private investment net of depreciation is negative. This means that private savings are being borrowed by the government, combined with the government's foreign borrowing, and then transferred to households to enable them to maintain their accustomed level of consumption. People are saving more, but government borrowing overwhelms their saving, with the result that aggregate saving -- public plus private -- is negative. So: negative savings, negative private investment, an incredible ratio of household debt to disposable income (1.25 to 1, though down from 1.39 to 1 in 2007), massive government borrowing to finance private consumption -- not a nice combination.

I so wish that I had no intellectual or personal interest in these topics.  The ignorance would have made my life so much better!

Anyway, Posner continues with his assessment, and it is more of stuff that should keep us awake night after night:

it is small consolation that fiscal imprudence is bipartisan. The parties play leapfrog when it comes to spending. From the standpoint of economic policy, the United States has only one party, and it is the party of profligacy.

Anne Applebaum says that she has seen America's future and it is damn "Greecy":

Fortunately for American politicians, we do not have to submit our financial statistics to a European Commission, and thus we do not have to lie about them outright. But aside from our very large budget deficit—at the moment, 9.9 percent of GDP and climbing—we also have liabilities that are rarely acknowledged. The costs of Medicare and Medicaid are going up, as is the cost of veterans care. Markets assume that the vast debts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are underwritten by the government, and someday the government might be called upon to pay them. No one is lying about these things, but no one is talking about them very much, either.

The good news is that the American government's bankruptcy is not on the front pages, and it won't be for many years: Our sheer size, our entrepreneurship, and our relatively open business culture will keep us going for a long time. But the Greek crisis shows that the combination of debt and political deadlock can be deadly. The catharsis we feel as we watch it unfold—that Aristotelian combination of pity and fear—should shock us far more than it has so far.

Quote of the day! "California Dreaming"

People worry that Greece is bankrupt — hah!

That was a reader's comment on the state of California, which Gail Collins quotes in her column on readers bragging that their states have the worst political culture.  I tell you, we compete in everything :)

Bad news for Euro ... good news for the dollar?

If only the state of a "permanent revolution" here in the US would calm down just a tad .... because, there is a global opportunity that we can tap into: the Euro is heading into a big fall and, yet again, the dollar and the US will be viewed as one hell of a safe investment amidst the chaos of the world.  First, from the WSJ:

The euro is likely to face further declines this week as concern over sovereign debt in Europe prompts investors to seek refuge in the perceived safety of the dollar and the yen.
Pressure on the common currency escalated last week, as worries about the soundness of debt issued by Greece spread to other fiscally stressed euro-zone nations, including Portugal and Spain.

Second, a little more on the sovereign debt, from The Economist:

As you can clearly see at right, Europe's deficit troubles began well before the global economic collapse.Now, there was an interesting discussion in the Washington office this week over whether it was possible for there to be a simultaneous crisis for all sovereign debt. While perhaps technically possible, it does seem unlikely, and so one might argue that countries with a relatively sound fiscal position, like America, have a lot of room to borrow for now, because debt worries elsewhere are causing investors to look for relatively safe havens. 

Ok, back to the WSJ:

The euro's losses were about 1.5% against the dollar last week, bringing its year-to-date slide to 4.6%. Against the yen, the common currency dropped Friday to a near 12-month low.
"Until we see signs of acceptance by those [nations] that austerity measures need to be put in place to resolve the fiscal imbalances, the euro will continue to deteriorate," said Thanos Papasavvas, head of currency management at Investec Asset Management in London, which oversees about $60 billion.
Ballooning budget deficits in euro-zone countries threaten to hurt an economic recovery, forcing the ECB to keep interest rates low longer than anticipated, in contrast to expectations of quicker increases from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

So, can the G7 do anything?  What says you, Professor Simon Johnson?

Ex-IMF chief economist Simon Johnson, also described the G7 group of leading economies as "fundamentally useless".

Johnson does not hold anything back:

Greece is an an extreme example - there I think you can see that it's going to get very messy very quickly - but unfortunately the budget situation in these other countries is also weak.
"And I have to add the UK to this list. Unless you can persuade the markets that you're really going to bring the budget under control within the foreseeable future and you're going to have some credible actions - and you're going to have to do some persuading - you're going to have big trouble."

But, Paul Krugman has a different take and, get this, it has an abbreviation that "sounds" great when you say it aloud as a word: PIIGS :) .... Krugman writes:

As Europe is roiled by sovereign debt fears, it’s important to realize that the crisis in the largest of the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) has nothing to do with fiscal irresponsibility. ....
The point is that this has nothing to do with a spendthrift government; what’s happening to Spain reflects the inherent problems with the euro, which now more than ever looks like a monetary union too far.

 Krugman then has this update:

Update: Whoops. Yes, Italy is bigger than Spain — and it has been fiscally irresponsible. But in a way that makes the point; Spain, which has been a good actor, is in much more trouble than Italy, which hasn’t

All the economists of the world will duke this out.  As far as I am concerned, once again the US dollar becomes a safe haven--despite the humongous mess that we are in.  How bizarre, eh!