Some are more equal than others!

Recall those series of posts here in which I had quoted the Nobel Laureate Svetlana Alexievich?  Those followed my summer reading in 2016.  Among other things,, Alexievich made possible for me to understand why putin continued to be in power in Russia.

Alexievich commented in an interview:

 “In the West, people demonize Putin,” Ms. Alexievich, who turns 68 later this month, said in a recent interview here, speaking Russian through a translator after a conference on her work at the University of Gothenburg. “They do not understand that there is a collective Putin, consisting of some millions of people who do not want to be humiliated by the West, ” she added. “There is a little piece of Putin in everyone.”

The "humiliation."  The emotion that putin has tapped into, in order to Make Russia Great Again!

Source

After having read Alexievich, it does not surprise me that millions of Russians and Eastern Europeans believe that they were better off under communism.

As governments dismantled social safety nets and poverty spread throughout the region, ordinary citizens grew increasingly less critical of their state socialist pasts.
A 2009 poll in eight east European countries asked if the economic situation for ordinary people was ‘better, worse or about the same as it was under communism’. The results stunned observers: 72 per cent of Hungarians, and 62 per cent of both Ukrainians and Bulgarians believed that most people were worse off after 1989. In no country did more than 47 per cent of those surveyed agree that their lives improved after the advent of free markets. Subsequent polls and qualitative research across Russia and eastern Europe confirm the persistence of these sentiments as popular discontent with the failed promises of free-market prosperity has grown, especially among older people.

The surprise, if at all, is that we are surprised when, for instance, the Hungarian Prime Minister, viktor orban, systematically assaults the country's democratic institutions.

Alexievich remarked about that right in the introductory pages of her book:

I recently saw some young men in T-shirts with hammers and sickles and portraits of Lenin on them.  Do they know what communism is?

It is doubtful that a great majority of the people there are rooting for communism's return:

Ethnographic research on the persistence of red nostalgia shows that it has less to do with a wistfulness for lost youth than with a deep disillusionment with free markets. Communism looks better today because, for many, capitalism looks worse

The political economic system--loosely referred to as capitalism--in the US and the UK was not noble by any means.

The US, a country based on a free-market capitalist ideology, has done many horrible things: the enslavement of millions of Africans, the genocidal eradication of the Native Americans, the brutal military actions taken to support pro-Western dictatorships, just to name a few. The British Empire likewise had a great deal of blood on its hands: we might merely mention the internment camps during the second Boer War and the Bengal famine.

So, where do we go from here?

We should all embrace Geertz’s idea of an anti-anti-communism in hopes that critical engagement with the lessons of the 20th century might help us to find a new path that navigates between, or rises above, the many crimes of both communism and capitalism.

Easier said than done in these days of the scumbag, er, president of the US, tweeting hate!

A conspiracy against the laity

The title of this blog is a GBS quote, as I have always noted in the margin.

When I first came across GBS, which was in middle or high school years in the old country, of course I had no idea about this quote.  It was a joke about the spelling and pronunciation issues in the English language that first made me aware of a George Bernard Shaw.

For many of us who grew up with a language other than English, and with the native script simultaneously phonetic as well, English was--and continues to be--a pain in the ass.  Or, a "royal" pain in the "arse," for those who prefer the Queen's English!

Thus, it delighted me to no end when I read that a certain GBS had made fun of the English language, by showing how "ghoti" should be pronounced as "fish."  (Much later in life, I would learn that the GBS-ghoti story is a myth!)

Then came GBS in the high school curriculum: An excerpt from his Pygmalion.

Once there was a collection of GBS in real life in the Readers Digest.  Here is how I remember two of them:

At a dinner party, GBS is seated next to a famous stage actress.  She tells him that if the two should have a baby together, it might be a powerful combination of her beauty and his brains.  Without missing a beat, GBS responds that it will be a disaster because the baby will have his beauty and her brains!

Another one:

GBS sent Winston Churchill two tickets to the opening night of his play, along with a note that one ticket was for Churchill and the second for any friend--if Churchill had a friend.
Churchill replied to that with a note that he would attend the second day of the play, if there would ever be a second day.

And then came GBS the Socialist.  Back in my commie days, I got to read about the Fabian Society, which had attracted the likes of GBS and Nehru.

GBS the socialist apparently adored Stalin!

Beneath Shaw’s infatuation with Stalin, moreover, was a force that is still with us: a desire to see in Russia all the qualities that the Western democracies lack.

I can easily relate to what the author writes as the context that lies under GBS' infatuation with Stalin:

But underlying all of this, there was an even stronger impulse: the fantasy of Russia itself. Long before the Bolshevik Revolution gave the dream a very particular political content, Shaw was primed to expect a global spiritual resurrection that would begin in Russia. This hope was not as fanciful as it may now seem: In the late 19th century, when Shaw’s political and artistic consciousness was being formed, Russian music, drama and literature were at the leading edge of modern Western culture. As he later wrote to Maxim Gorky, “I myself am as strongly susceptible as anyone to the fascination of the Russian character as expressed by its art and personally by its artists.”

I didn't know about GBS's Russian literature fixation, but I can relate to it.

By not understanding the tremendous richness of Russia's cultural past, and by equating Russia only with Communism--and putin--we do ourselves a huge disservice.  This tunnel vision is also a reason for why we are at a loss when it comes to understanding the Russian longing for the glory days of the old, which Svetlana Alexievich writes about.

Shaw's infatuation with Stalin is a lesson for all of us, especially in the donald "puppet" trump era:

Shaw’s infatuation with Russia became a full-on love affair with a Soviet autocrat, whereas the Trump bromance with President Putin appears unconsummated. But they share a fatal attraction that both preceded and survived the Soviet Union: the allure of a faraway place where the great leader is obeyed because he embodies a people’s soul.

All I can say is that the trump administration and the republican congress are certainly a conspiracy against the laity!

Why doesn’t people’s suffering translate into freedom?

"My grandmother saw so many changes during her own life" the visitor from Europe said.  The grandmother lived through Hitler's maniacal swallowing up of the Sudetenland and the big war after that, the Soviet tanks rolling in, and the barbed wire fencing and the guard dogs to make sure nobody could leave.  Fortunately, she lived a life long enough to also experience freedom after the fall of the Communist Bloc.

I remember the excitement when the Berlin Wall fell.  To this day, I am amazed at how the experts never saw that coming.  History just happens, more often than not.  The man who was behind that historic collapse, Mikhail Gorbachev, has authored a new book, which provides the context for this NY Times report:

In his twilight years, Mr. Gorbachev has become an isolated figure. Most of his contemporaries are dead. He is just critical enough about the lack of democracy under Mr. Putin that state-run television channels avoid him. His death has been announced more than once.

A once tremendously powerful and feared man is now "an isolated figure."  

Mr. Gorbachev enjoys no immunity from prosecution, and hence like many government critics, feels increasingly uneasy as the Kremlin chips away at civil liberties. He said he feared being declared a “foreign agent,” a revived Stalinist label that basically means “spy,” and that is now being used to shutter dozens of civil society organizations.
“There are quite a few reactionary-minded people in this country who are already declaring me a foreign agent — they think that I am working for someone,” he said. It is quite a statement from a man, who if he had changed nothing, might still be the supreme leader of the Soviet Union, as previous leaders tended to rule for life.

And here in the US we are very close to electing America's Putin as the President!

Svetlana Alexievich, whose Secondhand Time is one of books that I have ordered for this summer's reading, has an interesting observation about Putin:

“In the West, people demonize Putin,” Ms. Alexievich, who turns 68 later this month, said in a recent interview here, speaking Russian through a translator after a conference on her work at the University of Gothenburg. “They do not understand that there is a collective Putin, consisting of some millions of people who do not want to be humiliated by the West, ” she added. “There is a little piece of Putin in everyone.”

Apparently there is a little piece of Putin within quite a few million Americans too :(

Alexievich "has never considered writing fiction."  Why?

Life is much more interesting.

I am sure the European visitor's late grandmother, too, would have agreed with that. 

Pussy Riot: "join us in a taste of freedom”

Following-up on the Pussy Riot story, which has been atrociously handled by a lethal nexus of Putin's authoritarianism and the cold-hearted and irrational Russian Orthodox establishment.  The New Yorker appropriately and wonderfully calls this an absurd drama, but, of course, with tragedy written all over it.  Another New Yorker blog has this to say:

A punk-feminist collective, Pussy Riot is a band of political rebel-artists who, faced with years in a Russian prison, turn out to be courageous, self-possessed, and historically aware. And in their testimony they have shown themselves to be defiantly intelligent, worthy of the long tradition of Andrei Sinyavsky, Larisa Bogoraz, Joseph Brodsky, and so many other dissidents who stood in the dock and spoke for themselves and the cause of freedom.

The closing statements (here and here) are powerful, and educational. (ht)

I now have mixed feelings about this trial. On the one hand, we now expect a guilty verdict. Compared to the judicial machine, we are nobodies, and we have lost. On the other hand, we have won. Now the whole world sees that the criminal case against us has been fabricated. The system cannot conceal the repressive nature of this trial. Once again, Russia looks different in the eyes of the world from the way Putin tries to present it at daily international meetings. All the steps toward a state governed by the rule of law that he promised have obviously not been made. And his statement that the court in our case will be objective and make a fair decision is another deception of the entire country and the international community. That is all. Thank you.

Verdict on Wednesday, according to news reports. 

Won't it be wonderful if the legal system paid attention to this from their closing statement?

Our attitude toward religion, and toward Orthodoxy in particular, is one of respect, and for this very reason we are distressed that the great and luminous Christian philosophy is being used so shabbily. We are very angry that something beautiful is being spoiled.” It still makes us angry and we find it very painful to watch.

The lack on our part of any show of hatred or enmity has been attested by all the witnesses examined by the defence. And by the evidence of our characters. In addition to all the other character statements, I’d like you to consider the findings of the psychiatric and psychological tests the investigator ordered me to undergo in detention. The expert’s findings were as follows: the values to which I am committed in my life are justice, mutual respect, humanity, equality and freedom. That’s what the expert said, someone who doesn’t know me and Investigator Ranchenko would probably have very much liked him to write something different. It would appear, however, that there are more people who live and value the truth, and the Bible’s right about that.

Finally, I’d like to quote a Pussy Riot song because, strange as it may seem, all our songs have turned out to be prophetic, including the one that says: “The KGB chief, their number one saint, will escort protestors off to jail” – that’s us. What I’d like to quote now, however, is the next line: “Open the doors, off with the shoulder-straps, join us in a taste of freedom.” 

 So, Virgin Mary, put Putin away, and free these women!

Virgin Mary, Put Putin Away

That is the "Punk Prayer" that Pussy Riot sang, which pissed off Vlad the Impaler Putin and the Orthodox establishment.

Blogging about this here will not make any difference to the women who are being tried as if they are al-Qaeda terrorists who killed a couple of thousand civilians.  And, yet, as much as none of my other posts have made no difference at all, here I am carrying on in a Quixotic tradition.

Here is to hoping that even Putin will find the entire trial to be a farce, and will come up with some kind of a face-saving deal for himself, at least in response to the growing worldwide support for the protesters:

Pussy Riot's supports include fellow-dissidents in Russia, as well as Amnesty International, and Western musicians including Sting and the Red Hot Chili Peppers. Two of the women have young children.

In the meanwhile, protest along we shall.

The complete lyrics of the Punk Prayer:

(choir)

Virgin Mary, Mother of God, put Putin away
Рut Putin away, put Putin away

(end chorus) ...
Black robe, golden epaulettes
All parishioners crawl to bow
The phantom of liberty is in heaven
Gay-pride sent to Siberia in chains

The head of the KGB, their chief saint,
Leads protesters to prison under escort
In order not to offend His Holiness
Women must give birth and love

Shit, shit, the Lord's shit!
Shit, shit, the Lord's shit!

(Chorus)

Virgin Mary, Mother of God, become a feminist
Become a feminist, become a feminist

(end chorus)

The Church’s praise of rotten dictators
The cross-bearer procession of black limousines
A teacher-preacher will meet you at school
Go to class - bring him money!

Patriarch Gundyaev believes in Putin
Bitch, better believe in God instead
The belt of the Virgin can’t replace mass-meetings
Mary, Mother of God, is with us in protest!

(Chorus)

Virgin Mary, Mother of God, put Putin away
Рut Putin away, put Putin away

(end chorus)

Russia's Katrina. Pakistan's Katrina.

And yet, the politicians don't care. Which is what happens in societies that are not quite democratic.
First, the unfolding crisis in Pakistan--massive flooding.  How massive?  About 14 million people affected.

Twelve million are affected in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab provinces, while a further two million are affected in Sindh.
In Indian-administered Kashmir, at least 113 people died in mudslides.
Meanwhile, it has emerged that a charity connected to a group with alleged al-Qaeda links has been providing flood relief.
Flooding has submerged whole villages in the past week, killing at least 1,600 people, according to the UN.
And the worst floods to hit the region in 80 years could get worse, as it is only midway through monsoon season.

The number of affected will rise a lot more.  A couple of days ago, when this started. BBC reported that a million people were affected. Then it became three, then four, then eleven, and now up to fourteen million.
In a truly democratic society, the country's top leaders will be compelled to show up at the affected areas.  Pakistan's president, Zardari, is in the UK.  And this was after the British prime minister openly dissing Pakistan, while on a state visit to neighboring India!

Meanwhile, Russia is on fire.  At least, it seems that way, and apparently smoke from there has even drifted all the way to here in Oregon!  Over at the New Yorker, Julia Ioffe writes:

This ongoing disaster should be Putin’s Katrina, but instead the vast majority sees him as a benevolent father who can magically help them

Why does she say so?  Read on:

Villagers received no fire warnings. When the fires started approaching, some had trouble reaching the local authorities. Others begged for buses to help evacuate their villages, were told to fend for themselves. Fire trucks didn’t come, either, and then their homes, made of wood, were gone in minutes. The forestry minister, meanwhile, is on his August vacation, and has no plans to cut it short.

The government’s response has been a disaster, and the people are blaming their local officials—but not the very top. When a mob of irate women descended on Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, they weren’t mad at him; they were demanding that he, as one woman put it, “string [local officials] up by the balls.”

Boy, this Vlad "the impaler" Putin has quite a hold on Russia, it seems.  But, you think maybe it is not fair to include Putin in the list of officials who need to be strung by their cojones!  Not so fast:

In 2006, then-President Putin, in consultation with the Russian timber industry, “reformed” forestry regulations, eliminating positions for rangers, making each of the remaining ones responsible for more territory, increasing paperwork so they spent hardly any time outdoors monitoring the forests—and, on the off chance that they did spot a small fire while on patrol, making it a punishable offense (a misuse of state funds) to put it out. The organization charged with extinguishing fires was the Ministry of Emergency Situations, which responded speedily and capably to the Moscow Metro bombings in March, but a 2005 reform instituted by Putin left regional emergency outfits severely underfunded.

So, what is going for this former KGB officer?  Ioffe explains:

Except for the minority who read news in papers or online, Russians would never know that shoddy, nonsensical, industry-friendly deregulation was responsible for this natural disaster as much as the weather. Instead, the vast majority get their news from television, which has been broadcasting pictures of Putin, sleeves rolled up, touring the destruction. In a particularly fine touch, the main Russian television channel broadcast a “phone call” from Putin, ostensibly on his cell phone in the middle of a pristine birch grove, to President Dmitry Medvedev, back in his ornate Kremlin office. The message was clear: Putin was in charge, and this reassured the people who had lost homes to the fires he helped cause. “Putin said they’ll build us all new houses, so it will probably happen,” one villager told the Independent.

Well, I hope the millions in Pakistan and Russia are able to get over the rain and fire with as little damage as possible to life and property.  And, after things settle down, I hope they boot out all the dirty, rotten scoundrels.  And then we will do the same here in America!  All those people claiming cojones, better watch out ...

What happens to female suicide bombers?

Reports indicate that the Russian blasts heard around the world were set off by female suicide bombers.  It is yet another in a long line of incidents where the bomber was female.  I wish I had access to my own op-ed on this topic; maybe I authored it before I returned to blogging.

First, Anne Applebaum, who almost became the first lady of Poland, asks "How Did Russian Police Know Who Bombed the Moscow Subway?," and writes:

I do hope the Moscow police will present the public with hard evidence that two Chechen women really were responsible for this truly grotesque attack before blaming the incident on North Caucasian terrorists.

I am guessing that Czar Prime Minister Putin knows fully well the Cheney approach to use such horrible incidents in order to pursue his own agenda.

If it was indeed the act of female suicide bombers, what is in it for them?  If Islamist male suicide bombers can look forward to being entertained by virgins after their martyrdom, for female suicide bombers?  Here is Michelle Tsai:

religious commentaries argue that paradise will make them beautiful, happy, and without jealousy. The fact that they fasted and worshipped Allah during their earthly lives will also make them superior to the virgins, who only exist in heaven. Some modern clerics argue that in heaven, husbands never grow bored of their wives, even with so many huris around. That may explain why some would-be female suicide bombers have spoken of becoming "chief of the 72 virgins, the fairest of the fair."

Ok.  But are there non-Islamist female suicide bombers?  Of course.  In Sri Lanka the LTTE made horribly effective use of them. India's prime minister, Rajiv Gandhi, was killed by one such bomber.

Going one step more, is terrorism a male-dominated activity?  Brian Palmer asks whether there is a glass ceiling of sorts for female terrorists; could Jihad Jane ever have risen up to bin Laden's CEO ranks?  Palmer writes:

Women do not hold leadership positions in any of the major Islamic terrorist organizations. When Ayman al-Zawahiri was asked about the highest rank held in al-Qaida by a woman, he replied that there are no women in the group, but the domestic service of a jihadist's wife is heroic. Women may even be second-class citizens in the suicide-bomber set....

Women in the al-Qaida family are frequently used as marriage fodder. Many top terrorists marry their daughters off to colleagues abroad as a way to strengthen ties between regional or international terrorists organizations, just as old-school European monarchs once did. Osama Bin Laden and Mullah Omar appear to be married to each other's daughters. Indonesian terrorist Haris Fadhilah gave his daughter to Omar al-Faruq, a major al-Qaida operative. These arranged marriages are thought to enhance collaboration and communication among terrorist groups, but there's little indication that the women wield any real power. (Many female Chechen fighters gained their status through marriage, as well. The "Black Widows" are a group of bombers who try to complete the missions begun by their martyred husbands, fathers, or brothers.)

Russia beats Saudis as largest oil exporter. Trouble for all of us!

Putin and Russia are slowly gaining ground as the largest exporter of the much needed hydrocarbons that we rely upon as source of energy.  While the US and the rest of the world continues to focus on oil in the Middle East, ahem, Russia has had one wonderful decade, and is all set to pounce on Europe and Asia.

The year 2010 will see the global energy map redrawn as Russia, the world’s largest producer of hydrocarbons, reorients its oil and gas flows from Europe to Asia. ... Last year, Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest producer and exporter of oil.

 If that does not impress you, read on:

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Russia looked forward to winning a much bigger share of the Asian oil market than its current 5-6 per cent compared with nearly 70 per cent for Gulf-originated crude. East Siberian crude, to be marketed under the name of ESPO, is similar or even superior to the Middle East crude and the new pipeline will take it close to Asian customers.

India also stands to benefit from the new pipeline, as it will be linked with oilfields in Western Siberia, including the Tomsk region where India’s Imperial Energy has operations.

So, what might be next on Putin's agenda?

The next big goal in Mr. Putin’s plan is to challenge the U.S. dollar-denominated oil trade by switching trade in Russian oil to roubles. Mr. Putin first declared Moscow’s intention to use rouble in its oil and gas transactions in his 2006 state of the nation address. The following year, Russia began trading Russian oil for roubles at the Russian Fuel and Energy Exchange set up for the purpose in St. Petersburg.

 Which is also why this opinion piece says, "For the West, 'game over' in Central Asia":

The West has only itself to blame for this outcome. Despite sharing regional interests with Russia and China -- ranging from disarmament to the eradication of terrorism and the drug trade -- the United States and the European Union have rarely proven themselves willing to come to terms with Moscow and Beijing on Central Asian affairs. In the field of energy, Western policy objectives have fluctuated indecisively between attempting to fully depoliticize the industry -- through legal instruments such as the Energy Charter -- and providing American and European corporations with dirigiste-style support, based on the misplaced assumption that their technological superiority would offer more attractive conditions to Central Asian leaders. On the other hand, Russia and China have elaborated innovative responses through a network of bilateral deals and the institutional structure of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

The West has also misunderstood the resilience of Russian leverage and soft power in the region and dramatically overestimated the appeal of its "normative power." By insisting on issues -- such as democracy and human rights -- that not only had no influence, but scared the local power elites, they increased the attractiveness of Beijing and its strict adherence to the principle of non-interference in domestic affairs.

Putin 'wanted to hang Saakashvili by the balls'

What a day for the headline writers at the Times (of London, not NY!)

With Russian tanks only 30 miles from Tbilisi on August 12, Mr Sarkozy told Mr Putin that the world would not accept the overthrow of Georgia’s Government. According to Mr Levitte, the Russian seemed unconcerned by international reaction. “I am going to hang Saakashvili by the balls,” Mr Putin declared.

Mr Sarkozy thought he had misheard. “Hang him?” — he asked. “Why not?” Mr Putin replied. “The Americans hanged Saddam Hussein.”

Mr Sarkozy, using the familiar tu, tried to reason with him: “Yes but do you want to end up like [President] Bush?” Mr Putin was briefly lost for words, then said: “Ah —
you have scored a point there.”

Not only is this funny and bizarre and horrible all at the same time, it is a really telling statement when Vlad "the impaler" Putin thinks that Bush is the ultimate yardstick for how low a world leader can go! What a bunch of global leaders we have now.

I am hoping that I won't be nabbed by an extra-terrestrial who might direct me to "take me to your leader" :-)

Oil at $58.40 per barrel

Oil prices are collapsing faster than how the NY Mets collapse towards the end of the regular season! It is now trading at less than $60 per barrel; in fact, as I am typing this, it is at $58.40! What a mighty fall from $147 per barrel only a couple of months ago!

One of the best things that can come out of this: it will mess up Iran, Russia and Venezuela. Venezuela's Hugo Chavez will soon be in big trouble, because:

The government has based its 2009 budget on a price of $60 per barrel. Oil revenues account for some 90% of Venezuela's export earnings, more than 50% of the government's budget revenues and around 30% of gross domestic product.
There is thus much at stake. Government rhetoric is now dominated by talk of saving money and austerity, and the country being able and willing to take steps to live with oil prices at 2007 levels ($60 to $70 dollars per barrel) or less. Stress is also being put on the scale of Venezuela's international reserves of nearly $40 billion.

It is speculated that Russia might want to form an OPEC-like natural gas cartel. And it also wants a greater role in global oil prices. Well, wouldn't Putin like that! In fact, that might be the only way he can prop up the prices and also secure his own position.

And in Iran, 60 economists have published an open letter critiquing Ahmedinejad's policies:

"Meager economic growth, widespread jobless rate, chronic and double-digit inflation, crisis in capital markets, government's expansionary budget, disturbed interaction with the world, inequity and poverty have combined with the global economic downturn to leave undeniably big impacts on exports and imports," the letter says.Ahmadinejad immediately blasted back, contending at a seminar on economic development that Iran has been "least affected by this international financial crisis" and urging economists to design "an independent economic system and model based on justice," according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

China with money more powerful than USSR with guns

More commentaries, in addition to my earlier blog, on the Fannie/Freddie takeover zoom into the Chinese angle: that when the Chinese and others bought billions of debt, they did so because the feds were guarantors. So, when Fannie/Freddie tanked, well, here is Tyler Cowen (via Megan Mcardle)

In essence we already agreed to the bail out some time ago. Have you ever spent $17,000 on a car and asked the dealer what the warranty for the car "really meant"? Well, the Chinese spent $340 billion on agency debt and probably asked the same question at least once or twice. They live in a world of secret agreements with leaders, not transparent democratic arrangements. So when it comes to the U.S government decision, we're not just starting from scratch here. How many phone calls do you think Hank Paulson has received from the Chinese central bank since August 2007?
"Are you *sure* that paper is safe enough for us to keep on buying?"
We'll never know exactly what kind of verbal dance Paulson concocted in response, but just look at the resulting flow of purchases and the relatively slight mark-up over Treasuries over that period of time. The Chinese (among others) thought we were standing behind the securities, at least in any world-state short of federal government quasi-bankruptcy. (In fact Paulson is in a total bind once that phone call comes in. He doesn't have much incentive to just say "tough luck" and precipitate a crisis when otherwise no crisis is on the horizon.)
So should we try this: "Oh, is that what you thought? Guaranteed? Did we use that word? Sorry, try reading our signals better next time. We love you. Great job with those Olympics. And when it comes to those Treasury Bills, we really do still mean it. And don't forget to support us on Iran and North Korea."

And we pretend that we are the world's sole super-power who can do anything we want. It is bizarre that China has more influence on our policies than the USSR ever did.

Money is more powerful than guns! No wonder that Putin too is going the same route of flexing his petroleum riches.

The worst is yet to come?

I blogged about how the US economy is set to rebound while the rest of the world slows down. And then Vlad "the impaler" Putin goes after Georgia. Bombs the life out of half of Georgia, and the situation becomes a security threat for Caspian Sea oil: "BP shut down its Baku-Supsa oil pipeline — which runs through the center of Georgia from Baku in Azerbaijan to Supsa on Georgia's Black Sea coast". Almost as a response, even if not worded that way, Bush and Rice then rush into signing the missile shield agreement with Poland, thus escalating the tension with Putin. Result: "Crude oil rose more than $6 after the signing yesterday of a missile-shield agreement between the US and Poland bolstered concern that Russia may disrupt the flow of oil".

Yes, it is not all about economics. But, the economic impact is immediate. We can easily make sure that Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini is right after all--the worst is yet to come. BTW, want to know what a former chief economist of the IMF said? In a shot heard around the world, Ken Rogoff loudly proclaimed that "the worst is to come", and even predicted that a big bank will soon go belly up!

Ok, back to Georgia. A Guardian commentator is worried that American interest in Georgia is because of its interest to attack Iran.

Meanwhile, the developments in Pakistan are making that entire Pakistan/Afghanistan area even more explosive than it even was. The Taliban is pretty pumped up with all this. I am thinking we are only weeks away from a military coup in Pakistan. I bet Musharraf is chuckling at these developments. The guy is off the hook, and does not have to answer anybody's questions on the country's nuclear program, how much he oversaw the proliferation of it, .... Meanwhile the Daily Times says that Musharraf is heading to New Mexico until it will be safe for him to return to Pakistan. WTF!

All we need is a suicide bomber succeeding in the attempt against Afghanistan's Karzai, who has lucked out thus far--it will be September 11th all over again. Kiss goodbye to any economic or political recovery anywhere on the planet.

BTW, Mugabe continues on in Zimbabwe, where inflation was 11.2 million percent in June. North Korea vows to build up its military. Violence and protests continues in Kashmir, and violations of ceasefire agreements across the Line of Control.

I feel like I should go into hibernation, and wake up in 2011!

Gorbachev is ticked off--at America!

In the NY Times opinion piece, Mikhail Gorbachev writes that Russia did not have any choice, and that Putin and Medvedev acted appropriately and wisely. Gorbachev writes,
For some time now, Russians have been wondering: If our opinion counts for nothing in those institutions, do we really need them? Just to sit at the nicely set dinner table and listen to lectures?
Indeed, Russia has long been told to simply accept the facts. Here’s the independence of Kosovo for you. Here’s the abrogation of the Antiballistic Missile Treaty, and the American decision to place missile defenses in neighboring countries. Here’s the unending expansion of NATO. All of these moves have been set against the backdrop of sweet talk about partnership. Why would anyone put up with such a charade?

And, Thomas Friedman offers a different take. He does agree with Gorbachev that expanding NATO--supported by Clinton and Bush--was stupid. That Georgia was reckless with the military incursion. But, Friedman writes that Putin takes the gold:
That is why the gold medal for brutishness goes to Putin. Yes, NATO expansion was foolish. Putin exploited it to choke Russian democracy. But now, petro-power-grabbing has gone to his head — whether it's invading Georgia, bullying Western financiers and oil companies working in Russia, or using Russia’s gas supplies to intimidate its neighbors....
Russia would be wise to reconsider Putin’s Georgia gambit. If it does, we would be wise to reconsider where our NATO/Russia policy is taking us — and whether we really want to spend the 21st century containing Russia the same way we spent much of the 20th containing the Soviet Union.

Bush's role in the Georgia-Russia Conflict

I noted earlier Brendan O'Neil's observations on how Bush's insane policies helped trigger this crisis. It will be a while before such analysis will be openly presented in the US--after all, people have been called unpatriotic for ordering "french fries" instead of "freedom fries" :-)

Here is Fred Kaplan, one of the best analysts around:
Regardless of what happens next, it is worth asking what the Bush people were thinking when they egged on Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia's young, Western-educated president, to apply for NATO membership, send 2,000 of his troops to Iraq as a full-fledged U.S. ally, and receive tactical training and weapons from our military. Did they really think Putin would sit by and see another border state (and former province of the Russian empire) slip away to the West? If they thought that Putin might not, what did they plan to do about it, and how firmly did they warn Saakashvili not to get too brash or provoke an outburst?

Putin arrives at the Georgia war front

So, Vlad "the impaler" Putin has arrived at the conflict area to personally supervise the massacre. The Australian reports that prime minister Kevin Rudd witnessed a heated discussion between Bush and Putin, as athletes paraded before them in the Opening Ceremony on Friday night.

When Bush looked into Putin and was "able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country", I suppose Georgia did not show up anywhere. All we have been doing since then is irritating the cold, calculating, shrewd, and highly political Putin.

Anne Applebaum writes in Slate that the time to deal with this conflict was two years ago or four years ago. That there was a security vacuum in the Caucuses; that this vacuum was dangerous; that war was likely; that Georgia, an eager ally of the United States, would not come out of it well; that a successful invasion of Georgia, a country with U.S. troops on its soil, would reflect badly on the West—all of that has been obvious for a long time. Cowardice, weakness, lack of ideas, and above all the distraction of other events prevented any deeper engagement.

If you are like me, you probably are wondering how much President Bush's bizarre policies contributed to this. Well, here is Brendan O'Neill of Spiked: The bloodshed that occurred over the weekend, as Georgian forces bombed the breakaway territory of South Ossetia and Russia responded by attacking Georgia, can be seen as the destructive outcome of Washington’s increasingly hungry and erratic foreign policy. .... From the Ukraine to Uzbekistan to Georgia, Washington has backed a string of dodgy ruling parties and dictatorial leaders as they have upped the ante with their former rulers in the Kremlin. ....
Georgia, like many of the former Soviet republics, is a state with no real reason to exist. Lacking a unified national elite or identity, it is another of those Caucasian and Central Asian states that were born by default when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. It is fragile, changeable, and has various ethnic or ‘national’ groups within its borders – not only in South Ossetia (which wants to join with North Ossetia) but also in Abkhazia, a Black Sea region that has largely run its own affairs since defeating Georgian forces in a war in 1992-1993.
Over the past decade, Washington’s foreign policy – increasingly patternless and self-defeating – has helped to make the unstable state of affairs in the former Soviet republics worse. America has sought to turn these republics into outposts in its ‘war on terror’.

"Georgia on my mind" means something else in Russian

So, most of the world's attention is on the Olympic festivities., while it is a near all-out war between Russia and Georgia. What else we need to pay attention to?

• Continuing tensions in Afghanistan and Iraq, of course.
• Musharraf's impeachment
• The implication of Olmert's departure for Israeli government, and for the Palestinian peace process
• Mugabe's atrocities in Zimbabwe
• Sudan, and Darfur in particular
• Any development in Iran

We in the US might be tempted to ignore any of these, but we better not.