Monday, January 11, 2010

Russia beats Saudis as largest oil exporter. Trouble for all of us!

Putin and Russia are slowly gaining ground as the largest exporter of the much needed hydrocarbons that we rely upon as source of energy.  While the US and the rest of the world continues to focus on oil in the Middle East, ahem, Russia has had one wonderful decade, and is all set to pounce on Europe and Asia.
The year 2010 will see the global energy map redrawn as Russia, the world’s largest producer of hydrocarbons, reorients its oil and gas flows from Europe to Asia. ... Last year, Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest producer and exporter of oil.
 If that does not impress you, read on:
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Russia looked forward to winning a much bigger share of the Asian oil market than its current 5-6 per cent compared with nearly 70 per cent for Gulf-originated crude. East Siberian crude, to be marketed under the name of ESPO, is similar or even superior to the Middle East crude and the new pipeline will take it close to Asian customers.
India also stands to benefit from the new pipeline, as it will be linked with oilfields in Western Siberia, including the Tomsk region where India’s Imperial Energy has operations.

So, what might be next on Putin's agenda?
The next big goal in Mr. Putin’s plan is to challenge the U.S. dollar-denominated oil trade by switching trade in Russian oil to roubles. Mr. Putin first declared Moscow’s intention to use rouble in its oil and gas transactions in his 2006 state of the nation address. The following year, Russia began trading Russian oil for roubles at the Russian Fuel and Energy Exchange set up for the purpose in St. Petersburg.
 Which is also why this opinion piece says, "For the West, 'game over' in Central Asia":
The West has only itself to blame for this outcome. Despite sharing regional interests with Russia and China -- ranging from disarmament to the eradication of terrorism and the drug trade -- the United States and the European Union have rarely proven themselves willing to come to terms with Moscow and Beijing on Central Asian affairs. In the field of energy, Western policy objectives have fluctuated indecisively between attempting to fully depoliticize the industry -- through legal instruments such as the Energy Charter -- and providing American and European corporations with dirigiste-style support, based on the misplaced assumption that their technological superiority would offer more attractive conditions to Central Asian leaders. On the other hand, Russia and China have elaborated innovative responses through a network of bilateral deals and the institutional structure of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

The West has also misunderstood the resilience of Russian leverage and soft power in the region and dramatically overestimated the appeal of its "normative power." By insisting on issues -- such as democracy and human rights -- that not only had no influence, but scared the local power elites, they increased the attractiveness of Beijing and its strict adherence to the principle of non-interference in domestic affairs.

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