Pakistan: be afraid. very, very afraid!

I have blogged so often about Pakistan that I thought it might be time to revisit some of my previous posts--only those related to geopolitical implications, and not the ones like about Faiz Ahmed Faiz.

As I reviewed them, it scares the hell out of me that here I am in a small town far away from Pakistan and Washington, DC, and have been constantly harping on the need to remain focused on an effective Pakistan strategy, only to realize after these years that we still do not have one.  How awful!

I have selected the following from my posts, and have excerpted a few sentences to convey their main arguments.  In chronological order:

August 7, 2008: On the edge of a nervous breakdown

the military and the ISI might easily be tempted to play the India card, with a new twist: that India is working with Afghanistan, and using its embassy in Kabul to launch its anti-Pakistan activities, to squeeze Pakistan from all sides. If the country gets sold on this argument, then, say hello to mushroom clouds over the subcontinent. 

September 14, 2008: Pakistan is Cambodia, if Afghanistan is the new Vietnam

Ever since the US upped the ante by sending in ground and air forces into Pakistan's territory--without getting Pakistan's permission--we knew that it was only a matter of days before we morphed into Pakistan's enemy. It certainly looks comparable to the beginnings of the incursions into Cambodia.

November 22, 2008: How to solve a problem like Pakistan

the nuclear armed pakistan is close to failing as a state. ... No, I am not exaggerating: Pakistan's collapse can unleash demons that can be beyond our wildest imaginations.

April 4, 2009: Run! Now! Pak says nukes are safe!!!

It is way past time to worry when the prime minister has to go around trying to convince everybody that the nukes are safe! The good thing for us in America: we are far away from the chaos. The bad news: that is what we used to think until September 11, 2001!

Now, against these blog entries, consider the following news stories of today:

Cornered Pakistan may strike India to salvage lost pride (Times of India)

Deeply embarrassed by the US raid that killed Osama bin Laden under its nose, the Pakistan army might be tempted to ratchet up hostility towards India and even encourage the terror proxies it controls to stage strikes on the Indian mainland, the Indian security establishment feels.

Pakistan dares India to break border (The Nation)

Pakistan, in clear allusion to India, said on Thursday any country that tried to raid its territory in the way US forces did to kill Osama bin Laden would face consequences from its military.

India says Pakistan violated LOC ceasefire (Daily Times)

India said the Pakistani army fired on its positions and violated a ceasefire agreement in Indian-held Kashmir.

Meanwhile, just as bin Laden was America's Public Enemy #1, Dawood has been India's enemy #1.  Where was Dawood? Ahem, in Pakistan.  Where is he now, in the post Osama world?  India Today reports:

After Pakistan being caught ignorant about the presence of the world's most wanted terrorist Osama bin Laden, its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has whisked away India's most wanted gangster-turned-terrorist -- Dawood Ibrahim -- from the country.

Headlines Today accessed a secret intelligence dossier which says that the ISI has shifted the notorious underworld kingpin to Azerbaijan or Tajakistan. He has been moved out to keep him from the post-Laden killing troubles.

If only it were merely about Dawood, says the Times of India:

Despite evidence produced by New Delhi to the contrary, Pakistani leaders have for years rebuffed claims that criminals and terrorists sought by the Indian government are living on its soil. They consistently denied knowledge of Dawood Ibrahim operating out of Karachi and even brushed aside news reports of his daughter's lavish wedding in Dubai.
Police say that Dawood is only the most prominent of names receiving sanctuary across the border. Besides him, Karachi is playing host to Dawood's brother Anees and his lieutenants Chhota Shakeel, Tiger Memon, Aftab Bhatki, Edda Yakoob and Fahim Machmach.

The list is longer. Mumbai train blasts suspects Riyaz Bhatkal and brother Iqbal Bhatkal are also said to be living in Pakistan.
The migration of India's most wanted to Pakistan occurred in the 1990s after New Delhi signed an extradition treaty with the United Arab Emirates, where many of them had taken refuge.
"In 2005, Dawood's daughter got married to cricketer Javed Miandad's son in a big ceremony. Later, his brother Noora died and the entire Pakistani media reported about it. And yet the Pakistani government kept denying the don's presence on its soil," said a senior police officer.

Inspector Louis Renault said it best in Casablanca: