All that talk about green shoots was just too damn premature, it looks like. Which is what I was always worried about.The unemployment numbers do not look good at all. Think about the U-6 numbers then--you will lose sleep!
As far as I can make sense, the mess in Iraq has the potential to make this Great Recession a version 2.0 of the Great Depression. The contiguous geography from Iran through to Kashmir is where things can happen--for good or for bad. It is not going to be in the Israel/Syria/Lebanon area, though that status quo will continue for a long time, it seems like.
Anyway, if Iraq unravels, and Pakistan vaporizes (a chopper with 26 soldiers went down today), well, not a good scenario for anything, including a global economic recovery. And then on top of this if the monsoon in India fails, the Maoist rebels will find quite a bit of support in the impoverished rural areas. Oh crap!
(the jobs graph via Mankiw)
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