Racing to a ten

Major Buzzkill tries to do optimism.  But, it is hard.  Deep down, there are worries all the time.  He blames it all on his very optimistic and cheerful grandmother whose night time prayer included a subliminal worry that she might not wake up from her sleep! ;)

Over the years, the Major has made fun of Malthus and the neo-Malthusians.  He has happily pointed out to students that the world human population was less than a billion when Malthus thought we were all going to die soon, while the reality of today is that 7.4 billion people have too much food and obesity is our big worry!  It is all a part of the 200-year transformation, the Major proudly enlightens them.

But, Major Buzzkill, who loves telling students "you're screwed!" does not tell students is that deep, deep, deep down there is always a worry about the future population numbers.

This worry deepens every time he visits India.  Except between late night and early in the morning, it is crowded everywhere, and seems to get more crowded every year.  In contrast, the Major is getting more and more used to the plenty of open space under the big sky here.  It is a struggle within to reconcile the intellectual understanding of population growth and resources with his own personal preferences?

The intellectual Major Buzzkill gleefully points out the historic reversal that is unfolding across the world--the elderly in the country outnumbering the kids there.  As the following chart shows, Italy led the way in 1995,, and now it is a growing list:

Source

Imagine that: 56 countries having more older folks than kids!

The trend into the future tells quite a story:

Looks incredible, right?  It is almost as if this is from Ripley's Believe it or not.  The future will be the tyranny of the old.  Instead of the parents changing the kids' diapers, it will be middle-aged women (almost always they are the caregivers) or perhaps robots changing the diapers of the elderly.  What a transformation through the 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries!

Major Buzzkill is no Malthusian.  But, deep, deep, deep down he worries that a few countries, like his old country, might struggle to keep up with the total population and the elderly population.

Source

Adding the population of the US to India in another three decades.  Despite his best plans, largely because of his dull and boring highly regimented lifestyle, this might happen within Major Buzzkill's lifetime and he will get to witness it.  I wonder what Major Buzzkill will have to say about this in 2040, if not in 2050.

Image and story of the day: elderly women and rape in Africa

What is special about this photo of two elderly African women?  They are at a martial arts class.  for defending themselves, as this photo essay at Foreign Policy explains:


Two elderly women wait for their martial arts class to begin in a slum in Nairobi, Kenya, in January. By some counts, one in five adult rape victims in Kenya is older than 60 -- one survivor is 105. Intercourse with the elderly is believed by many would-be attackers to bring good luck, purify one's sins, and even cure AIDS. Starting in 2007, a program called I'm Worth Defending has empowered women to fight back by teaching self-defense classes in Nairobi slums.

I followed up on one of those hyperlinks where it reads:

The Nairobi Women's Hospital, home to the country's largest gender violence recovery centre, treats about 230 cases of sexual violence every month - the oldest survivor was 105 years old.
"When it comes to rape, I am my only defender," said Veronica Njeri, 65, another member of the class. "Here in the slums, people act like there is no law."

Yet another piece of evidence that we live in one screwed up world.  Though, I suppose it was not any better in the past--perhaps even worse!

How old is enough? 99 years?

In previous posts, I wondered about old age: will medical advancement make death optional, and whether politics is becoming the tyranny of the old. And then the impact of pensions and benefits pretty much bankrupting GM, and perhaps public agencies real soon. Additional links on this "old" topic:

• Should old faculty retire when they are eligible for retirement so that the younger ones waiting for a (tenure-track) job can get one?
• At what age--80+,90+, 100+--do advanced medical treatments for the old become wasteful expenditures?

The typical argument in India, when I was young, was that the older folks were respected and well-treated in India, and that the US and the west condemned them to old-age homes. That was then. Now, old-age homes are a rapidly growing market in India. I know of at least three in such developments; one is in his late 80s. It is a simple matter of demographics--life expectancies have shot up in three decades.

Here in the US, the elderly are a powerful bloc--both economically and politically. Slate has been looking at different aspects in its geezer special. Slate has also listed the most powerful 80 who are over 80, and are highly active. Who are the top-ten in this group? Here is that list:

1. John Paul Stevens, 88. Associate Supreme Court justice since 1975. Justice Stevens is currently the court's oldest and longest-serving member and wrote the most-cited opinion in American law, Chevron v. Natural Resources Defense Council.
2. Kirk Kerkorian, 91. President and CEO of investment company Tracinda Corp.; majority owner of Las Vegas-based MGM Mirage. As of March, the Armenian-American Kerkorian was the 41st-richest person in the world.
3. T. Boone Pickens, 80. Chairman and founder of the hedge fund BP Capital Management. Pickens' fortune stands at $4 billion and growing. A famous Texan wildcatter, Pickens is now turning his attention to alternative energy.
4. Si Newhouse, Jr., 80. Chairman and CEO of his family's privately held Advance Publications, which owns Condé Nast—home of fancy titles like The New Yorker and Vogue. According to a recent New York Times profile, micromanager Newhouse personally hand-counts ad pages in both his magazines and in their competitors
5. Sumner Redstone, 85. Chairman and CEO of National Amusements Inc., which has controlling interests in Viacom, the CBS Corp., MTV, and Paramount. Redstone's net worth is currently estimated at $6.8 billion.
6. Robert Byrd, 90. Senior senator from West Virginia and a vociferous critic of President Bush and the Iraq war. As president pro tempore of the Senate, Byrd, a Democrat, is third in the line of presidential succession
7. Henry Kissinger, 85. Secretary of state under President Nixon; guardian of realpolitik theory, practitioner of détente. Kissinger won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1973 for his role in arranging a cease-fire between the United States and North Vietnam
8. David Rockefeller Sr., 93. Grandson of John D. Rockefeller; patriarch of the famous clan since 2004. In his own right, he is the former chairman, president, and CEO of Chase Manhattan Bank. Rockefeller's lifetime charitable donations are approaching $1 billion
9. Edward Albee, 80. Hailed as America's greatest living playwright. Albee's most famous plays include Zoo Story, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?, Seascape, and Three Tall Women. When asked how it felt to have won three Pulitzers, the famously cantankerous Albee replied, "Hmmph! It's not very many."
10. Liz Smith, 85. New York gossip columnist, at various publications, for 32 years. Her 2000 memoir, Natural Blonde, was a best-seller

BTW, I am far from being in this 80+ club :-)

How old is enough?

In two previous posts, I wondered about old age: will medical advancement make death optional, and whether politics is becoming the tyranny of the old. And then the impact of pensions and benefits pretty much bankrupting GM, and perhaps public agencies real soon.

Additional links on this "old" topic:
a. Should old faculty retire when they are eligible for retirement so that the younger ones waiting for a (tenure-track) job can get one?
b. At what age--80+,90+, 100+--do advanced medical treatments for the old become wasteful expenditures?

As a society, we have no choice but to deal with these difficult questions. Uncomfortable questions, no doubt. But, .....

Tyranny of the old?

Just as we have a minimum age to be eligible to vote, should we have a maximum age for voters? If the idea is that a seventeen year old can't quite understand the world and make rational choices, then couldn't we make the same argument about, say, an 89-year old?
Similarly, when we have minimum age requirements to be an elected official, how come we do not have maximum age limitations? I remember Strom Thurmond never making any sense.

So, while in a prior blog entry I referred to the discussion on whether death can become optional, I am equally concerned about politics, and the benefits of political decisions, being dominated by the elderly, leaving the dwindling younger generations to pay the price.