Worried about CO2 emissions? Story got more interesting today

One of the more surprising headlines of the day:

U.S. CO2 Emissions Fall to Lowest First-Quarter Level in 20 Years

Huh?

Really?

Apparently so:

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy use in the first quarter of this year fell to their lowest level in the U.S. in 20 years, as demand shifted to natural gas-fired generation from coal-fired electricity due to record low gas prices, the energy department said.
Energy-related carbon emissions fell 8 percent from the same period a year ago to 1.134 billion metric tons (1.25 billion tons), according to the latest monthly energy review by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) - the energy department's statistics arm.

If only the "doubting Thomas" commenter, jayjames,  who didn't believe my arguments about coal plants closing and natural gas price decreasing actually knew what he/she was talking about!

If the news about CO2 emissions here in the US was a surprise, perhaps only a tad lower was this:

Earth sucking up increasing amounts of carbon dioxide

Huh?

Really?

Apparently so:

The Earth's ability to soak up man-made carbon dioxide emissions is a crucial yet poorly understood process with profound implications for climate change.
Among the questions that have vexed climate scientists is whether the planet can keep pace with humanity's production of greenhouse gases. The loss of this natural damper would carry dire consequences for global warming.
A study published in Thursday's edition of the journal Nature concludes that these reservoirs are continuing to increase their uptake of carbon — and show no sign of diminishing.
In an accounting of the global "carbon budget," researchers calculated that Earth's oceans, plants and soils had almost doubled their uptake of carbon each year for the last half-century. In 1960, these carbon sinks absorbed around 2.4 billion metric tons of carbon; in 2010, that figure had grown to around 5 billion metric tons.

Head spinning, you say?  Wait, there is more.

A second paper, published earlier in the week by the journal Nature Geoscience, provides insight into how the disposal service in the ocean is actually working. The surprising finding is that a handful of relatively concentrated spots in the Southern Ocean account for a high proportion, roughly 20 percent, of the entire oceanic carbon uptake.

So, can they keep absorbing at the same rates?

The obvious concern the paper raises is that climate change could disturb the existing pattern of winds and currents and shut down the hot spots, making the entire ocean less efficient as an absorber of carbon dioxide.
In principle, of course, things could go the other way too, with climate change perhaps creating more such hot spots and increasing the efficiency of the disposal service. But we know from the geological record that past jumps in the earth’s temperature have tended to raise the amount of carbon dioxide in the air, which then reinforced the warming trend. So that’s a pretty good reason to think that things will unfold the same way as a result of human-caused warming.

These reports about CO2, against the backdrop of the blackouts in India where the monsoon has failed as well, reminded me about this op-ed by the editor of Scientific American, in which he noted:

The most frightening prospect that Mr. Lenton has found is the vulnerability of the Indian monsoon. More than a billion people depend on this weather pattern each year for the rain it brings to crops. The monsoon, though, is being affected by two conflicting forces: the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is adding energy to the monsoons, making them more powerful. On the other hand, soot from fires and coal plants acts to blocks the sun’s energy, weakening the monsoons.

This opposition creates potential instability and the possibility that the atmospheric dynamics that bring the monsoons could change suddenly. Mr. Lenton’s analysis shows this could occur in a remarkably short time. The monsoons could be here one year, then gone the next year. 

Here today and gone tomorrow is not a bottom-line that is conducive to any long-term planning, is it?  The level of uncertainty that CO2 introduces ought to worry most of us outside the maniacal GOP!