Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Two economists on the rebate checks: you decide!

It was quite hilarious to read in the City Journal that economics has matured into a real science. Oh, really? When exactly did this happen?
Economics is a sophisticated guessing game. No, a good economist is like a good lawyer, and an excellent one will come up with something a la Johnnie Cochran's famous, "if it doesn't fit, you must acquit" argument. Science has excellent predictive abilities--economists can't even agree on what happened in the past, leave alone being unanimous in their predictions!

Want evidence? Here is one.
Context: how successful was the idea of the rebate check that the Congress and the President signed off on, and the money we have all spent? Will it be wise to do another round of rebate?

Paul Krugman's left hook: There is, however, a case for another, more serious fiscal stimulus package, as a way to sustain employment while the markets work off the aftereffects of the housing bubble. The “emergency economic plan” Barack Obama announced last week is a move in the right direction, although I wish it had been bigger and bolder

And Martin Feldstein's right jab: The Tax Rebate Was a Flop. Obama's Stimulus Plan Won't Work Either. All of the evidence on one-time tax rebates implies that the Obama plan to send $1,000 rebate checks would do little to raise consumer spending and stop the decline in employment.

So, who you gonna believe? :-)

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