The coal chart that should scare us towards exploring renewable energy

I am not any environmental activist by any means.  I understand that life is about tradeoff and that the natural environment is one of the many factors that we have to consider.

But, I do worry that all is not well with the manner in which the global economy has been pursuing a growth strategy in which many, many, goods--from inexpensive plastic bottles to iPhones--are manufactured in China, at a huge cost.  The cost being environmental.  I suspect that such a global economic approach will depend on how China responds, and the response--or lack thereof--will have implications for internal political stability as well.

China's economic engine is fueled by coal, the consumption of which is simply astounding, as this chart, which was all over the news and the blogs yesterday, shows:

Source: EIA

As this note in the Scientific American adds:

In fact, according to EIA, the 325-million-ton increase in Chinese coal consumption in 2011 accounted for 87 percent of the entire world's growth for the year, which was estimated at 374 million tons. Since 2000, China has accounted for 82 percent of the world's coal demand growth, with a 2.3-billion-ton surge, the agency said.

A scary, scary, chart, indeed!

But, China consumes so much coal for a very good reason--it is one heck of a cheap source of energy.  Well, cheap because nobody has to explicitly pay for the downside to burning carbon, as is the case when we burn gasoline or natural gas too.

It is coal that has helped the rapid transformation in China--especially in the rural hinterland:

Xu Youwang has been a farmer all his life. The 56-year-old says he can remember a day when all he owned were sheep. He and his neighbours all live in mud-brick houses.
But now he has a washing machine, a TV - and big dreams. "If I had the money I'd buy a car, an apartment, a fridge and a computer," he said.
Farmer Xu expects his life to only get better. And that is the challenge for China's leaders - balancing the aspirations of people like him with more sustainable economic growth
For now, at least, the country's reliance on coal and the pollution that comes with it shows little sign of ending.

Of course, China has been actively exploring alternatives to coal--there are more nuclear power plants planned and under construction there than anywhere else on the planet:

Source: The Economist

Like any other rational person, I too worry about the downsides of nuclear power.  But, hey, that is what I mean as tradeoff!  An environmental activist who opposes coal and nuclear power then has to provide for alternatives, right?

China has been exploring hydropower too as an alternative-but, remember all the environmental controversies over the Three Gorges Dam?  Tradeoff is not easy.  Never easy.

China is pushing for more hydro projects, which will not only have environmental issues, but will also catalyze more geopolitical hand-wringing:

In a major concern for India and Bangladesh, China has approved construction of three new hydropower dams on the Brahmaputra river.

The move comes after a two-year halt amid concerns shown by India and environmental groups about reduced water flow downstream.

The three new dams have been approved by the Chinese State Council Cabinet under a new energy development plan for 2015.

Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/china-finalises-three-more-dams-on-brahmaputra-river/1/248144.html

Bloomberg reports that China is pushing for more solar power, too!

China plans to increase its goal for solar-power installations in 2015 by 67 percent to reduce reliance on fossil fuels blamed for greenhouse gases and as smog in Beijing reached record hazardous levels this month.
The world’s biggest emitter of carbon-dioxide plans to raise the solar target to 35 gigawatts by 2015 from 21 gigawatts set last year, boosting demand for manufactures that suffer from slowing sales in Europe, Shi Dinghuan, the counselor of China’s State Council and the president of Chinese Renewable Energy Society, said today by phone.
“We’ve got more pressure to save energy and reduce emissions as smog worsens due to pollution,” he said.

All these make very, very clear that we--the world--cannot have our cake and eat it too: if we, especially in the US and in the rich countries, want cheap stuff that fills up our closets and garages, then we have to accept the carbon usage in China.  If we, especially in the US, refuse to impose a carbon tax on ourselves and, thereby, set an example for the rest of the world, then we have no choice but to accept the carbon usage in China.

We can always fool ourselves by claiming that CO2 emissions in the US have fallen way down to the lowest level since 1994--we have simply exported away the pollution, exactly as Lawrence Summers wanted us to back when he was the Chief Economist at the World Bank :(