Thursday, May 10, 2012

If India is energy-starved, how about Pakistan?

Today is one of those days when I happened to wonder whatever might have happened if India and Pakistan (and, therefore, Bangladesh) hadn't split and, at least, hadn't fought wars and engaged in expensive arms race.  Imagine!  The possibilities are simply limitless.

Instead, the Subcontinent, including Sri Lanka and Nepal, has been a tragicomedy of wasted opportunities and unfulfilled dreams.  Increasingly, the tragicomedy is looking more and more farcical.

Consider this: India and Pakistan blast nuclear devices whenever one feels the urge to demonstrate its testosterone levels when its government is getting battered internally.  Or, they shoot up missiles.  All these, as even a third grader knows well, is awfully expensive.

Meanwhile, as I noted a couple of days ago, there is a lot to worry about India's economy.  How is it across the border in Pakistan?  It seems to want to outdo India in making sure its people will not have enough electricity:
Demand for energy in Pakistan now outstrips its capacity to supply electricity to industry and households by several thousand megawatts. With preliminary census projections of a population of more than 192 million and the share of the urban population rising, the challenge to power Pakistan will only grow more difficult. Already, hours-long interruptions in power have dragged down productivity in key sectors like the textile industry and sparked confrontations between rural and urban political leaders and the transportation, agricultural, and manufacturing sectors for priority access to what energy is produced. 
 Of course, this is not entirely new; I noted here more than a year ago about Pakistan's floating power plant, which the government had leased from Turkey.

But, now the situation is getting even worse because the government is broke and can't pay up:
nine independent power producers -- which collectively produce 8 to 9 percent of Pakistan's energy supply -- now warn that they can no longer continue operations if government payment is not immediately forthcoming. With fresh borrowing plans, the government is likely to negotiate another settlement with these companies. 
How deep is the government in debts, you ask?  
approximately half of this year's federal budget expenditures were devoted to debt repayment, far eclipsing military spending, government salaries, or development investments. 
The Indian economy is sputtering, and the government seems to be hell bent on making sure there are enough and more to choke the windpipes.  As this column notes, it seems like it is three steps backward for each forward step!   Despite the government's best intentions, it is amazing that the economy grows at all, I suppose.

How did the Subcontinent get so messed up?  How much worse could it have been if there had been no partition?


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