Thursday, March 11, 2010

Toyota recall: much ado about nothing?

The deaths and various levels of unfortunate experiences are horrible, indeed.  There is no denying that.

But, are we over, over emphasizing the risks associated with this?  Robert Wright, always the sober and rational person, writes:
it worries me that this Toyota thing worries us so much. We live in a world where responding irrationally to risk (say, the risk of a terrorist attack) can lead us to make mistakes (say, invading Iraq). So the Toyota story is a kind of test of our terrorism-fighting capacity — our ability to keep our wits about us when things seem spooky.
Passing the test depends on lots of things. It depends on politicians resisting the temptation to score cheap points via the exploitation of irrational fear. It depends on journalists doing the same. And it depends on Americans in general keeping cool, notwithstanding the likely failure of many politicians and journalists to do their part.
Wright correctly points out that the odds of dying from a car-related accident are much, much higher:
your chances of being involved in a fatal accident over the next two years because of the unfixed problem are a bit worse than one in a million — 2.8 in a million, to be more exact. Meanwhile, your chances of being killed in a car accident during the next two years just by virtue of being an American are one in 5,244.

So driving one of these suspect Toyotas raises your chances of dying in a car crash over the next two years from .01907 percent (that’s 19 one-thousandths of 1 percent, when rounded off) to .01935 percent (also 19 one-thousandths of one percent)

One of the best comments to Wright's piece is this:
Nobody understands risk. Smokers will complain about the dangers of Toyota software.

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