People who need people

In 2023, unless the former guy and his party members do something even more treasonous to dominate the news cycle, chances are good that you will hear and read a lot about India's population having overtaken China's.  This post will put you ahead of that news curve.  Every once in a while, this blog addresses tomorrow's, even next year's, news ;)

One part of the story is the dynamic in China:  "[After] four extraordinary decades in which China’s population has swelled from 660 million to 1.4 billion, its population is on track to turn down this year, for the first time since the great famine of 1959-1961."  Imagine that; China's mighty population will decrease!

Meanwhile, India's will continue to grow.  But the growth will be at a far lower pace compared to decades past. 

In fact, it is incorrect to think of India's population growth because it hides the tremendous regional variations.  Given that there is no massive immigration into India, population growth is from natural conditions, with births exceeding deaths.  The average number of children (the fertility rate) that women in different states in India significantly differ, which then causes huge differences in population growth. 

Source

This is not anything new.  It has been happening for a while.  Ahem, I wrote about this in a commentary back in 2009!  "In Tamil Nadu, which is where my parents live, the fertility rate is about 1.8. The other southern states of Kerala and Andhra Pradesh also have similar low fertility rates." 

As I always do in such commentaries, I personalized that data: "So much so that well into the extended family only one cousin has more than two children—he has three. Most of the rest have only one child, and a few are yet to have any, even after a few years of being married. In some cases, even the only child is an adopted one."

That was in 2009.  What about the fertility rate now?  The national average itself has dipped below the magical number that is needed for maintaining a stable population.

Some of the readers are old enough to remember the 1970s and 1980s when the US was worried about Japan beating America.  About how the dollar would lose to the Yen.  Those were the years that Japan's population peaked and since then the story has been of Japan's population decrease.  Do we worry about Japan kicking America's butt?

We seem to worry about China kicking our butt, right?  Ahem, China's population has peaked and ... you can fill in the blanks.

So, will India be next in line to compete against the US?

Hah, never! Instead of giving you a detailed argument, I will remind you about this post from a couple of days ago.

You are now ready for the breaking news in 2023!