Thursday, February 03, 2011

Dirty rotten food prices--they are up, again

For a couple of days last December, when I was in India, the headline news was only about onion prices--they had gone way up.  So much so that the federal government had to impose an export freeze.
As those prices started coming down, tomato prices started shooting up.

These are alarming news in India for two reasons: one, food prices affect the poor, who spend a significant percentage of their incomes on food.  And, second, governments--particularly coalition governments like the one in place in India now--can easily get thrown out of power because of food prices.

In the new year, there seems to have been a further escalation in food prices.  According to The Hindu:
food inflation surged further to 17.05 per cent for the week ended January 22 from 15.57 per cent in the previous week as prices of vegetables, fruits, milk and protein-based items continued to soar.
What is particularly hurting the common man is the fact that the current inflationary bout is not just a statistical anomaly of low ‘base effect'. The price rise is for real in that the high food inflation at over 17 per cent, as per the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data, is over and above the 20.56 per cent surge witnessed during the like week a year ago.
But, even more worrisome is the fact that it is not merely in India:
The FAO Food Price Index, which measures the wholesale price of basic foods within a basket, averaged 231 points last month - its highest level since records began in 1990.
It was up 3.4% from December, the seventh monthly rise for the index.
"These high prices are likely to persist in the months to come," FAO economist Abdolreza Abbassian said.
The index is now higher than June 2008 when the cost of food sparked violent protests in countries including Cameroon, Haiti and Egypt.
Yes, it is catching people's attention:
World Bank President Robert Zoellick has asked global leaders to "put food first" and tackle the problem of price volatility.
"We are going to be facing a broader trend of increasing commodity prices, including food commodity prices," he said.
Unfortunately, for many years now, the developed world has pretty much taken its eyes off the food issue.  I am not sure how pathetic this indifference would be if it were not for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation forcing the world's attention on this--even a few years ago.  At the World Food Symposium, Prabhu Pingali observed this when talking about the Green Revolution:
Smallholders in the Indian Punjab, with average farm sizes of one hectare, went from producing a single crop of rice or wheat with average yields of little over a ton to producing two crops per year, a rice crop followed by a wheat crop, each with average yields of 4-5 tons. Many even managed a third crop of vegetables or fodder in between. In China, farm sizes were even smaller, Chinese farm households were allocated one mu per person. What’s a mu? It’s one fifteenth of a hectare, or one sixth of an acre. For American Football fans, (we are in Iowa State Cyclones country here) one mu is equivalent to the area between the 0 and 12 yards, just a little larger than “the end zone”. The Chinese agriculture transformation took place because farmers extracted the most out of their mu
But, the last two decades haven't seen any great push to advance the science, technology, and practice of agriculture in Asia and Africa.
“Investing in small farmers is an incredibly effective way to combat hunger and extreme poverty—history has proved it many times,” said Gates, whose foundation has committed $1.5 billion to date to agricultural development. “The launch of this fund is an important step forward, but only a first step. Other countries meeting at the European, G8 and G20 summits in June, and at the U.N. Summit in September should join the four founding partners and make good on their pledges. If we all sustain focus until the job is done, hundreds of millions of people will lead better lives.”
According to the World Bank, about three-quarters of the 1 billion people who live in extreme poverty depend on agriculture for a living.

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