Thursday, February 05, 2009

Do recessions worsen income inequality?

I read the following sentence in Megan McArdle's post:
Most of what recessions do is deepen the gap between the haves and the have-nots.
At a gut level, this has been my worry all along. For the very reasons that McArdle writes about. Earlier this morning I was at the Saturn dealership for the oil change, and the conversation with the folks there was a reminder yet again that there is a high probability that my job and income are safe, while the number of unemployed increases, and while prices are in-check or even in decline. Sure, the high-flying investment bankers have been grounded now, and therefore there is a little bit of flattening at the top of the income distribution ..... but, ....

... the researcher side in me, that is suspicious of instincts and gut-feelings, wants/wanted to find if there is evidence to support this. Don't have much time to devote to this, given that I still have 15 test papers to grade before my class meets in two-hours-plus. (well, in between I have a lunch commitment too!) However, from a quick scan of the academic literature on this, I spotted an article in the April 2004 issue of Economic Journal, where the authors (Murat F. Iyigun and Ann L. Owen):
examined the relationship between income inequality and variability in aggregate consumption growth. In low-income countries, higher levels of inequality appear to be associated with less fluctuations in consumption growth, and in high-income countries, more inequality seems to be associated with greater fluctuations.
More inequality is associated with greater fluctations. Well, we know very well that income distribution got significantly skewed during the go-go boom years. And now, the downturn is also huge.

But, the article does not say anything about whether nasty economic downturns further widen the income gaps .... if a rising tide lifts all boats, then does a rapidly falling low tide strand catamarans while yachts continue to float away?

More on this later.

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