Don't get carried away by Tuesday's "Bull Market"

Yes, it was a relief that there was some good news, particularly about Citibank's health, which then led to a huge stock market rally. But, don't get overly bullish--such ups and downs are common in such chaotic conditions, as this wonderful graphic from dshort shows:

The unbearable lightness of the stock market

Lemmings, not bears, on Wall Street?

Sure it is a bear market. But, how do we know the market is not over-correcting? What if the better metaphor is lemmings jumping off a cliff? Well, that was my thought after looking at the Economist cover earlier today. And then I read this piece in the NY Times; here is an excerpt:

the market has become a case study in the psychology of crowds, many experts say. In normal times, it runs on a healthy mix of fear and greed. But fear now seems to rule, with investors often exhibiting a Wall Street version of the fight-or-flight mechanism — they are selling first, and asking questions later.
“What’s happening is people are crawling into a bunker and pulling an iron sheet over their heads because they think the sky is falling,” said William Ackman, a prominent hedge fund manager in New York.
And that bunker is getting very crowded, so much so that some analysts are starting to suggest the markets are showing signs of “capitulation” — another term of art to describe what happens when even the bullish holdouts, the unflagging optimists, throw up their hands and join the stampede out of the market.

A neat short-story set in Estonia

If you love Somerset Maugham's style of short-stories, then you will certainly enjoy this one set in Estonia. The very clever ending will make you smile.