Friday, May 14, 2010

The coming deflation?

While hyperinflation is to be worried about, a little bit of inflation does not worry most of us--in fact, most central banks work towards maintaining that healthy rate of inflation
Deflation, on the other hand, is a serious monster.  Krugman adds more to why we need to worry ...
Ever since the economic crisis began there have been two schools of thought about inflation prospects. One school basically has a Phillips curve, aggregate demand view: because major economies are operating far below full employment, we should expect disinflation, and possibly deflation. The other is basically monetarist with a touch of Austrianism: look at all the money central banks are printing and governments are borrowing, it says, inflation — maybe even hyperinflation — is just around the corner.
Guess who’s been right so far?
“Spain joins therefore Slovenia, Portugal and Ireland in the number of countries where core prices are falling compared to the previous year,” said Luigi Speranza, an economist at BNP Paribas.
What about the US? Well, various measures of core inflation — like the Dallas Fed trimmed-mean deflator, the Cleveland Fed median CPI, and indexes excluding food and energy have all fallen from 2.5-3 percent inflation at the start of the crisis to around 1 or lower. If the trend continues — which it will unless the recovery is stronger than I fear — deflation is in our future, maybe next year.
 Table? crawl under it. stay there. until 2020?

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