Will the jobs of tomorrow be about competing for scraps?

With my debating partner on a holiday, this might be the best time to sneak in a topic where he always, always disagrees with me; but then, hey, at least, he agrees with me on how enriching travel is ;)  May he and his shiny companion have a good time!

So, yes, back to that topic ... about the jobs of tomorrow.  I am no Luddite, but I worry a great deal that the technological advancements are not helping to generate meaningful and gainful employment.  There is economic growth, no doubt.  But, that storied middle class jobs and life might soon become a fable.

Thus, when the managing editor of one of the leading academic journals in economics, Journal of Economic Perspectives, writes worrying about similar issues, I am all the more convinced that the young are screwed!

The question of how new technologies might be combined with workers of all skill levels to create middle-class career paths for the future will manifest itself in very different ways in countries all around the world. But in every country, it's one of the fundamental challenges for the global economy in the next few decades.

And, yes, he takes on a global view--not any provincial American perspective.

Economies all around the world need to create jobs. In part, this is to continue the process of recovery from the Great Recession. In part, it is to address expanding workforces in the countries that are still experiencing population growth. And and all around the world, jobs need to be created so that those who have unsatisfactory or insecure jobs have the prospect of something better.

This is when you want to tell him, "how about we just stop right here and simply pretend that everything is alright?"  But, of course, you don't tell him that.

Within the private sector, it seems highly unlikely that hundreds of millions of new jobs are going to be generated in the manufacturing sector. The reason lies in what the report calls the theory of "premature industrialization." In past episodes of economic development around the world, a common progression has been for workers to move from agricultural jobs to low-skilled manufacturing jobs, and then on to higher-skilled manufacturing jobs and service jobs. However, in a world of high-technology, many countries without especially high income levels seem to have already seen a peak in their manufacuturing  jobs--and the peak level of manufacturing jobs seems to be happening at lower levels of the workforce.

I.e., even in countries with low labor costs, manufacturing won't ever be a big-time employment generator!  Which means, it all depends on the service sector.  Should we really ask him for his opinion on that?

The jobs question all around the world is the extent to which service-sector jobs can provide a broad base of careers for a wide range of skill levels. As the ILO notes in discussing the idea of premature deindustrialization, "the extent to which services can take over the role of manufacturing and facilitate the convergence of developing to developed countries is still under scrutiny ..." In high-income countries, there are concerns that service industry jobs can tend to be polarized, with options for low-skill workers who do service jobs where a physical presence is needed, and high-skill workers who make heavy use of information and communications technology, but a hollowing out of options for the middle class.

If you are feeling discouraged at this point, well, read no more.  Because, the prospects will look uglier when I quote Robert Reich, who is worried that the "share economy" is nothing but a euphemism for "share-the-scraps economy":

How would you like to live in an economy where robots do everything that can be predictably programmed in advance, and almost all profits go to the robots’ owners?
Meanwhile, human beings do the work that’s unpredictable – odd jobs, on-call projects, fetching and fixing, driving and delivering, tiny tasks needed at any and all hours – and patch together barely enough to live on.
Brace yourself. This is the economy we’re now barreling toward.

You want Reich to give some examples at this point, right?

They’re Uber drivers, Instacart shoppers, and Airbnb hosts. They include Taskrabbit jobbers, Upcounsel’s on-demand attorneys, and Healthtap’s on-line doctors.
They’re Mechanical Turks.

Reich's bottom-line?

the biggest economic challenge we face isn’t using people more efficiently. It’s allocating work and the gains from work more decently.
On this measure, the share-the-scraps economy is hurtling us backwards.

There is only one way out of this for me--I have to be absolutely wrong.  Dead wrong.  I hope I am wrong.  I wish I were wrong.  For the youth's sake.

Come on, you know where this is from!

I, Too, Sing America

Early in the day, I surfed over to the Google page to do a search, and was stumped by the doodle there:

source

I clicked to animate the doodle, which turned out to be a homage to the African-American jazz poet and social activist, Langston Hughes.  And was fascinated by the poem there, I Dream a World.

Naturally, I tweeted that!

Langston Hughes and his "I Dream A World" in #GoogleDoodle for his 113th birthday http://t.co/BzMIseSgMU
— sriram khe (@congoboy) February 1, 2015

So, of course, I then spent some time reading a couple of Hughes' poems.  But, I decided that of the poems of his that I have read, my favorite continues to be the one that I blogged about more than four years ago: "I, too, sing America"

I, too, sing America.

I am the darker brother.
They send me to eat in the kitchen
When company comes,
But I laugh,
And eat well,
And grow strong.

Tomorrow,
I'll be at the table
When company comes.
Nobody'll dare
Say to me,
"Eat in the kitchen,"
Then.

Besides, 
They'll see how beautiful I am
And be ashamed--

I, too, am America.

That's some poem!  A neat way to begin Black History Month, right?

Climate change is not at all a risky business project

“Congress tends not to act until the broad mainstream, including business, is aboard.”

If they don't teach that in all first grade classes, well, they ought to!  Imagine a Mr. Robinson looking at the camera and saying, "hey little boys and girls, today we will learn about Congress where money talks and everything else is flushed down the toilet."

So, what is the issue on which business is not aboard yet?

Get this--it is climate change.

I know, I know, scientists have been talking about this forever, it seems like.  But, hey, who cares about science and scientists unless they can show us the money, right?

Remember that old joke about a kid who was advised to study hard so that he can become an engineer, or a doctor, or a scientists, or even a lawyer, and he said he wanted to become a businessman so that he can buy the best engineer, the best doctor, the best scientist, and even the best lawyer (if there is one!)?  Haha, the joke is on us idiots who didn't set out to make money!

Anyway, why get charged up, eh!  Back to the news item then, which is about "the Risky Business Project"

an unusual collection of business and policy leaders determined to prepare American companies for climate change. It’s a prestigious club, counting a former senator, five former White House cabinet members, two former mayors and two billionaires in the group. The 10 men and women who serve on the governing committee don’t agree on much. Some are Democrats, some Republicans.

So, what brings them together?

they all do agree on one issue: Shifts in weather over the next few decades will most likely cost American companies hundreds of billions of dollars, and they have no choice but to adapt.

No way!  Really?  Climate change will have economic costs to businesses?  Shut up already!

Yes, it is from that site, as always

Yes, my sarcasm meter is registering high levels.  Maybe I should calm down by thinking of the day's religious activity that will bring together the people of this exceptional country.

Crap, the sarcasm meter is showing even higher numbers! ;)

So, where was I?

if business feels the pain in its wallet, it will feel the heat to act, even on the coldest of days.

Oh yeah, the business people whose hearts are bleeding that they won't be able to make money if we don't do something about this darn climate change.

The group is led by three men: Tom Steyer, the hedge fund billionaire whose super PAC spent $73 million last year attacking Republicans who denied climate change and promoting awareness of the issue; Henry M. Paulson Jr., the former chief executive of Goldman Sachs and the Treasury secretary under President George W. Bush; and Michael R. Bloomberg, New York City’s former mayor and the billionaire founder of the financial information company Bloomberg L.P.

 Of course.  If Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg come together, then Congress will simply wag its tail.

Except ...

The news story about these rich white dudes worrying about climate change amping up the cost of doing business and cutting into the profit margin makes no mention of those other rich white dudes.  You know, the new generation of Robber Barons.  Still struggling to identify them?  Tsk, tsk; I am referring to the Koch brothers.

The multi-billionaire Koch brothers are planning to spend a staggering $889 million in the 2016 election cycle, more than double what they spent in 2012. Politico called it “a historic sum that in many ways would mark Charles and David Koch and their fellow conservative megadonors as more powerful than the official Republican Party.”
... Koch Industries surpassed Exxon Mobil in funding climate science disinformation and clean energy opposition years ago. They have already become the biggest force for anti-science politicians at every level of government.
This $889 million announcement is a declaration of dependence on fossil fuels, a figurative declaration of war on a livable climate and the health and well-being of countless future generations.

Awww, how cute that climate change is no longer a scientific issue but is one for a few billionaires to sort out while they collectively screw us and democracy itself!

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