Will we really enjoy this wave of automation? Hint: No!

It was a good thing that I was already lying down when I read this in the Economist:

This special report will argue that the digital revolution is opening up a great divide between a skilled and wealthy few and the rest of society. In the past new technologies have usually raised wages by boosting productivity, with the gains being split between skilled and less-skilled workers, and between owners of capital, workers and consumers. Now technology is empowering talented individuals as never before and opening up yawning gaps between the earnings of the skilled and the unskilled, capital-owners and labour. At the same time it is creating a large pool of underemployed labour that is depressing investment.

In the Economist?  And only a few months after that special report on robots, in which the magazine noted:

Job destruction by robots could outweigh creation

Even the Economist is now worrying about these issues that I have been worried about for a while, about which I have blogged enough that even the business guy began to concede that maybe this information revolution is different?

As I often remark, when the Economist and/or the Wall Street Journal begin to worry about things that I worry about, it means that the shit has hit the fan. Game over. The end. Finito.

The effect of technological change on trade is also changing the basis of tried-and-true methods of economic development in poorer economies. More manufacturing work can be automated, and skilled design work accounts for a larger share of the value of trade, leading to what economists call “premature deindustrialisation” in developing countries. No longer can governments count on a growing industrial sector to absorb unskilled labour from rural areas. In both the rich and the emerging world, technology is creating opportunities for those previously held back by financial or geographical constraints, yet new work for those with modest skill levels is scarce compared with the bonanza created by earlier technological revolutions.

Holy crap, this is no different from my own conclusions.  This means we are in one heck of a deep trouble.

Another piece in this special section ends with this:

This technological revolution could still hold many surprises. It may create vast numbers of jobs nobody has yet imagined, or boost the productivity of less-skilled workers in entirely novel ways, perhaps through robotic exoskeletons or brain implants. But for now, and despite the opportunities opened up by some new tech-based ventures, a generation of workers the world over is facing underemployment and stagnant pay. Governments will be sorely tested to deal with that.

Meanwhile, there is more to worry about all this information revolution, says Nicholas Carr, who only a few years ago warned us that Google is making us stupid.  Reviewing his latest book, the Boston Globe piece notes:

By examining the fallout of a series of technological advances, Carr makes the case that millions of us will have lots of time for television, as machines are becoming smart enough to do the high-skill jobs we once believed “computer-proof.” And he fears that all of us will see our skills eroded, our intelligence debased, and our work devalued, if we sacrifice human responsibility to black boxes full of microchips.

So, skill sets eroded.
No jobs.
But plenty of time to watch television and play video games and update the status on Facebook.
Welcome to Idiocracy!
It will be one awful new world.

Only twenty-five more years sounds like a great idea from this perspective too!