The world is curved. No, it is flat. How about spiky?

Not too long ago, Thomas Friedman--the master manipulator of metaphors--asserted that the world is flat. The book earned him quite a few million dollars, I am sure, and then he went on to talk and write about a green revolution--about green energy--apparently oblivious that the green revolution is a phrase that is already under use. Now, thanks to Friedman the popularizer of metaphors, people are going to the forget the importance of improving agricultural productivity in poorer countries--the green revolution--which ought to be the #1 global priority.

One of the best critiques of Friedman's metaphor came from Edward Leamer, an economist at UCLA. He had a fantastic prologue to the book review:

When the Journal of Economic Literature asked me to write a review of The World
is Flat, by Thomas Friedman, I responded with enthusiasm, knowing it wouldn’t
take much effort on my part. As soon as I received a copy of the book, I shipped it overnight by UPS to India to have the work done. I was promised a one-day turn-around for a fee of $100. Here is what I received by e-mail the next day: “This book is truly marvelous. It will surely change the course of human history.” That struck me as possibly accurate but a bit too short and too generic to make the JEL happy, and I decided, with great disappointment, to do the work myself.

A few months after Friedman's book was published, in October 2005, Richard Florida wrote in the Atlantic that the world is spiky. In discussing that, Florida threw in more metaphors--valleys, hills, playing fields, ....

I suppose people decided that we have played around with metaphors enough. Enter David Smick and his book, The World is Curved. A Q/A with the author at that website has this:

The title The World Is Curved is sure to draw comparisons with Tom Friedman’s book The World Is Flat. Why did you select the title? Why is the world now curved? Was it ever flat?
Friedman brilliantly presents the first installment of the globalization story, concentrating on the revolutionizing (flattening) of the global supply chain. But there is a second installment—the financial side of the story where the world is not flat; the world is curved. You can’t see over the horizon. Sight lines are limited. As during the subprime mortgage crisis, we are forced to travel down an endless, dangerously twisting and turning road of volatility with steep valleys and risky mountainous climbs. We can’t see financial risk ahead. A small village in Arctic Norway can see its
entire financial future destroyed because its financial managers invested heavily in a Citigroup product called a collateralized debt obligation.

Can somebody please pass a law that playing with metaphors to explain global economic geography will result in a forced Peace Corps volunteer service in Moldova for two years?

As always, it is the first one who gains the attention and money--something that Friedman knows really well. Even if he is not always right in his analysis, he is definitely a trendsetter. I am pretty sure, and unfortunately for Florida and Smick, that people will not pick up the world is curved or spiked metaphors.

Bonus if you read until here. Matt Welch wrote a fine commentary on Friedman's punditry through metaphors and cliche.

More pay and less security for teachers. Go for it.

I suspect that the generational dynamics that Paul Tough refers to in the K-12 system might apply to higher education too. Tough blogs that:
One striking phenomenon revealed by the Denver negotiations was a generational split among teachers. Younger teachers were generally in favor the deal being offered, and older teachers tended to oppose it. (Some veteran teachers told the Denver Post that they felt "dissed.")
A similar generational divide has appeared in D.C., where, as the Washington Post reported last month ...

The split in the teaching corps largely, but not exclusively, is occurring
along generational lines, with younger teachers more willing to accept the risks
and older ones often questioning the proposal.

The Post story mentioned an anonymous young teacher-blogger, "D.C. Teacher Chic," who is a fan of Chancellor Rhee and is decidedly in favor of her new deal (under which teachers could choose a "green plan" that would trade tenure for a higher salary or a more traditional "red plan"). Her blog—often funny, usually outraged—offers a great insight into the mind of a teacher on the young side of this growing generational divide.
At the beginning of August, when it seemed that George Parker, the president of the D.C. teachers union local, was going to turn down Rhee's offer, D.C. Teacher Chic blew a gasket:

I am going to cry. Seriously. And then I am going to start looking for another
school system.I cannot believe George Parker is supporting scraping this entire
contract and going for a more "traditional agreement." Clearly, not only does he
not represent me, but he is also taking money right out of my pocket!I
understand that shitty teachers who have been working in the system since 1952
don't want to give up tenure. Fine. I get it. So choose the red plan! I don't
understand opposing the entire proposal, unless you just haven't read it.

Chinese labor shortage. For real. Not from the Onion!

"China's “surplus” labour has been used up," The Economist notes, and demographics will soon affect its economy--"factory bosses have recently complained of labour shortages and wages have been rising more rapidly."

Not a huge surprise actually.

Just over a year ago, the NY Times reported on August 29, 2007, that wages are on the rise. Of course, Chinese officials would not admit any labor shortage. Instead, according to them, "there is a shortage of young workers willing to accept the low wages that prevailed in the 1990s." Hello? Isn't that a textbook definition of shortage?

However, given the global economic slowdown, and the recession in the US, plus the post-Olympic economic impacts in China, I wonder what the impact on wages there will be--I am guessing there will be a downward pressure on Chinese wages.

Will we be around on September 11th?

These LHC [Large Hadron Collider] opponents fear that the Earth could be destroyed by vacuum bubbles, magnetic monopoles, microscopic black holes, or strangelets produced by the high-energy proton-proton collisions planned by CERN physicists. Vacuum bubbles have been described as a kind of "cosmic cancer." If it turns out that there is a lower energy state into which the universe could settle, then the LHC might produce "bubbles" of such a state which would then expand, ripping apart the Earth and eventually the entire universe. If magnetic monopoles were produced they might induce protons to decay and thus destroy normal matter. Microscopic black holes might grow by gobbling up the Earth. And strangelets are combinations of quarks that theoretically interact with normal matter and transform it into strange matter.

That was Ronald Bailey reporting on the scheduled switching on of the collider on September 10th. Bailey goes on to write, the empirical evidence is that the universe has been running trillions of these high-energy physics "experiments" for billions of years without disastrous results. In fact, Ord's colleagues Nick Bostrom and Max Tegmark from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology calculate that the empirical evidence suggests a conservative estimate of the annual risk that LHC-like experiments would destroy the earth is 1-in-a-trillion. At the end of his talk, Mangano reminded the Oxford conferees, "Jeopardizing the future of scientific research would be a global catastrophe." Any theory, model, or calculation that suggests otherwise is clearly flawed.

In other words, don't party like it is the end of the world. Interested in understanding how the LHC works? Click here.

The horrible thing is that a few non-scientists (or is that nonsensists?) are so hysterical about the end of the world that, according to the Telegraph, the American Nobel prize winning physicist Frank Wilczek of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has even had death threats, said Prof Brian Cox of Manchester University, adding: "Anyone who thinks the LHC will destroy the world is a twat."
The head of public relations, James Gillies, says he gets tearful phone calls, pleading for the £4.5 billion machine to stop.

BTW, given the significance of September 11th, couldn't the scientists at CERN have picked a different date? At least a week later? Or, is the 10th THE day for the experiment for some cosmological reasons?

Increase pay for Oregon's leaders

I support higher compensation for the governor, legislators, judges, and other senior state officials.

The world and the state have significantly changed since Oregon’s constitution was adopted a hundred and fifty years ago. The dominant economic activities then, for instance, were related to natural resources—farming, fishing, forestry—which were also seasonal. Citizens interested in politics and governance could then set aside time from their professions—if they could afford to, of course.

The issues were also less complicated than they are now. For one, they did not have to be concerned about the problems of most of the population—women and non-whites, who did not have voting rights until much later. That itself would make the agenda for any government very light indeed.

Further, the much simpler economy meant that it was a limited range of issues that needed any discussion at all. An example will illustrate the point. There was no need for discussions on a “bottle bill” in the 1870s because, well, there were no soda cans or bottles littered on the beaches and along the highways. Wait, there were no highways then!

In contrast to those simpler “Little House on the Prairie” times, we have a sophisticated economy, and the organization of our economic and personal lives is much more complex than it was even fifty years ago. So much so that even the successful “bottle bill”, which was a landmark legislation hailed all over the world, now needs updating in order to reflect the contemporary situation.

In a democracy, working on the “bottle bill” and a whole bunch of other issues requires qualified people in all the branches of our government. However, we can’t expect, nor require, the legislators, judges, or the governor to essentially do this on their time and money—which is what, in effect, low compensation levels imply.

Yes, we need to fix inefficiencies in our government. But, the solutions for leaner and more productive government will not automatically happen as a result of low salaries. In fact, it will require higher salaries to attract talented people who can then work towards this important goal. If compensation is the overriding issue, then perhaps we should watch out for loony proposals to outsource our government—including the governor and legislators—to India, where a few thousand well-qualified Indians will be willing to work for Oregon’s minimum wage!

Obviously, higher salaries do not guarantee a better government. We only need to look across at the business world, which is filled with examples like Enron whose leaders were highly compensated—but failed miserably. But, unlike in the corporate world, we people have the ultimate power after all—the votes to elect or not re-elect officials.

Finally, let us also remember two golden rules. One, the warning that, in a democracy, we get the government we deserve. And second, the marketplace axiom that we get what we pay for. An outcome when these two rules work together can be disastrous for good government in the 21st century.

(Opinion forthcoming in the Statesman Journal)

next to of course god america i

e.e. cummings died on this day in 1962. in his honor, here is one of his poems:

"next to of course god america i
love you land of the pilgrims' and so forth oh
say can you see by the dawn's early my
country 'tis of centuries come and go
and are no more what of it we should worry
in every language even deafanddumb
thy sons acclaim your glorious name by gorry
by jingo by gee by gosh by gum
why talk of beauty what could be more beaut-
iful than these heroic happy dead
who rushed like lions to the roaring slaughter
they did not stop to think they died instead
then shall the voice of liberty be mute?"

He spoke. And drank rapidly a glass of water

click here to listen to cummings reading this poem

Inflation is here. Beware.

If we decide to have pizza, we always go to Bene, and have their Mediterranean, which used to cost $18.50. Last week it was $19.75. A significant jump in the price. The croissants at our neighborhood grocery store, Market of Choice, look a tad smaller than before. I think they are trying to maintain the price the same, but are actually delivering a little less to account for inflation.

Well, Daniel Gross explains:

[producers] have been able to pass on only about 60 percent of their higher
costs to consumers. The result has been sharply lower profits. .... many
companies have reached their limit in absorbing higher costs. That is why we've
had large bankruptcies in the restaurant industry (Bennigan's), and in
retailing (Linens 'n Things). Today, every company is faced with a choice of absorbing the higher costs passed on to them by suppliers or passing them on to consumers. Many companies are choosing the latter course. Airlines are furiously tacking on
charges for luggage, food, drink, blankets, and pillows. Hershey's, complaining
of costs for sugar and other commodities that have risen between 20 percent and
45 percent so far this year, in August announced a 10 percent price increase. Frank Bruni reports in Wednesday's New York Times that restaurateurs are
substituting cheaper goods (shiitake mushrooms instead of morels, lump crabmeat
instead of jumbo lump crabmeat) and keeping the prices steady. When you pay the
same for smaller portions or for goods of lower quality, that's inflation.

I was right on Pakistan: next is the military coup

There was an assassination attempt on Pakistan's prime minister. Well, that was so much a surprise, right, when even somebody like me could figure out that all won't be well in that country! I mean, look at my following posts:

• August 27th--Pakistan: Situation normal all f*ed up
• August 25th--The shoe drops in Pakistan. Next the military coup
• August 21st--So, it is time for a military coup in Pakistan
• August 11th--The coming complete breakdown in Pakistan
• August 7th--Pakistan: on the edge of a nervous breakdown
• August 1st--A new round of conflicts and instability

I will be not be surprised at all if the military steps in. I tell you, the world ought to listen to me more often. And somebody ought to pay me for this analysis and reporting.

There is only one clear winner here: Pervez Musharraf. I am just appalled that this guy goes free, and does not have to pay any damn rupee for all his actions. Amazing.

Beards, bald-heads, presidents, and me

Yes, this is me. I wanted to find out how I would look without facial hair--it has been a number of years since I last did this. Not bad, eh!

One of the most admired presidents--Lincoln--had a beard. Teddy Roosevelt had a big fat mustache. But, think about this: we no more have presidents with facial hair. And, at the same time, we no longer have male presidential candidates who are bald. With female presidents, we will not have beards and baldies--well, it will be rather strange to have a bald and bearded female president. Heh heh!

The last president who had a shiny dome? "I Like Ike". Ike was also the last president to almost alays ever wear a hat while out in the public.

JFK, photographed often on beaches and on sea, eliminated hat-wearing, and also set the trend that baldies are ineligible for the Oval Office.

As Time put it, it was the simple sartorial gestures of John F. Kennedy that really shaped 20th century American style. The images are iconic now—a rolled-up sleeve, an untucked shirt, a shaggy head of hair—like something out of a J.Crew catalog or a Ralph Lauren advertisement. But in 1961, Kennedy's confident, carefree style was a radical departure from the copycat boxy gray suits and felt hats that had defined men's fashion for previous generations.
Among other things, Kennedy banished hats for men, even disposing of the top hat for his inauguration speech.

I like wearing a wide-rimmed summer hat. My favorite was a hat I had purchased when we visited the Amish countryside in Pennsylvania many years ago. I wore it a lot when we lived in the hot and dry Bakersfield. Until my daughter sat on it and crushed it one day :-(

The theatre of the absurd

Global warming and illegal immigration are two controversial political issues. I suppose it was only a matter of time somebody linked the two into a farcical argument, like how The Onion would. Only thing is, well, this letter in the Statesman Journal is no satire!
Wholesale immigration to places like Los Angeles is a prime contributor to "global warming." Fifty years ago it had the world's largest fishing fleet, largest vineyard and aircraft industry, and was first in agriculture production in the U.S.
That's gone now, and replaced by the world's largest matrix of vehicles, roads, and waste water systems.

Academic freedom is not an inalienable right

We can always count on Stanley Fish to write something that will surely upset a bunch of faculty. (The small subset of the global population that we are!)

The latest is about academic freedom. This time around, I am not in the group upset with his column :-) Fish articulates a fine point that academic freedom is related to the job that we have to do, and is not the freedom to do whatever we want to do.
To quote Fish, To those who regard academic freedom as an unwarranted indulgence you can say, No, it's not an indulgence, it's a necessary condition for engaging in this enterprise, and if you want this enterprise to flourish, you must grant it. To those professors who turn freedom into license by using the classroom as a partisan pulpit, or by teaching materials unrelated to the course description, or by coming to class unprepared or not at all, you can say, Look, it's freedom to do the job, not freedom to change it or shirk it.
This is what it means to say that academic freedom is not a general freedom like the freedoms guaranteed you by the Constitution and the First Amendment; it is task-specific and task-limited.

I am reminded of an instance where a professor got upset at suggestions directed to all faculty not to convert classes into platforms for presidential elections, particularly when the course materials are not directly related to that. The response: "it is my academic freedom to teach whatever I want to teach in my classes." I agree with Fish that simply aint so.

The same issue of the Chronicle has a review of Fish's latest book. The reviewer is in the "other group" that is not happy with Fish's arguments--a group that I fall into every once in a while. But, perhaps when I am in the "other group" people like the reviewer are in the happy group?

Diddy on gas prices: oh poor me!

If ever anybody needed one single reason for why gas prices need to rise more, Sean Diddy Combs provided all the arguments in favor. This is so bizarre that I am tempted to conclude it is a satire from The Onion. Unfortunately, it is not. Maybe another piece for Mankiw's Pigou Club?

From CNN: Sean "Diddy" Combs complained about the "... too high" price of gas and pleaded for free oil from his "Saudi Arabia brothers and sisters" in a YouTube video posted Wednesday.
The hip-hop mogul said he is now flying on commercial airlines instead of in private jets, which Combs said had previously cost him $200,000 and up for a roundtrip between New York and Los Angeles.
"I'm actually flying commercial," Diddy said before walking onto an airplane, sitting in a first-class seat and flashing his boarding pass to the camera. "That's how high gas prices are. I'm at the gate right now. This is really happening, proof gas prices are too high. Tell whoever the next president is we need to bring gas prices down."

When to use 'fewer' rather than 'less'?

It looks like there are grammar vigilantes all over the world!

"Tesco is changing its checkout signs after coming under criticism from linguists for using "less" rather than "fewer"" says the BBC .... and
"Tesco is replacing its current "10 items or less" fast-track checkout notices with signs saying "Up to 10 items"."

The Plain English Campaign has a simple rule of thumb to help everyone: less means "not as much," whereas fewer means "not as many".

More than a million affected by massive floods

Even as we are on the Hurricane Gustav watch, India's northern state of Bihar is reeling from massive floods. Well, Nepal too.
AFP reports that "More than 400,000 people have been evacuated in an operation involving local authorities, emergency workers and the army, disaster management ... Another 800,000 people have made their own way out and sought shelter in overcrowded relief centres set up by the government or in concrete buildings and temples, officials in Bihar said, but at least one million remain stranded."

Bihar has been a tragic story for decades. It is probably the least developed state, with the highest level of corruption and violence. A classmate of mine, Vijay Nambisan, wrote a book on Bihar a few years ago. A columnist quotes Vijay: Probably one of the best intros to Bihar could be the book by Vijay Nambisan, Bihar. "No one who has seen the Ganga plain after the monsoon and the annual flood, who has seen what it produces despite more than 2,000 years of intensive cultivation, can think that the state of Bihar is a poor one. The soil is incredibly fertile: Poke in a seed and it sprouts," writes the author.
Cut to the tale of Pushpa, thin, dark and short-statured who tells Vijay's wife, Kavery, "Why should I worry about that? I will be dead by 40."
Vijay comments: "It seemed incredible that a woman in her mid-20s, in the year of grace one thousand nine hundred ninety-seven, in a democratic republic which purports to guarantee the welfare of all its citizens, could make such a statement. The most horrible thing about it, of course, was that it was true."

The unbearable whiteness/blackness of being

Growing up in Tamil Nadu, a southern state in India, I had a total immersion in the socio-political dynamics that were based on groups that had always had the upper hand versus those that were always pushed down. It was only a matter of time before those who were pushed down exercised their democractic power and, when they did, the old rules were swiftly broken. It is no wonder then that Tamil Nadu today is phenomenally way more progressive than many other states in the union.

Of course, the big difference between the situation here and that in Tamil Nadu is one of numbers: in Tamil Nadu, the oppressed were/are a majority of the population.

Looking at the presidential elections from that perspective, I have a strong feeling that the "blackness" and "whiteness" will play a significant role in this election. Which is why I liked this essay in the New York Review of Books. I think I like the concluding argument too:

What seems more needed, in my view, are two parallel campaigns: a quiet one to assure a maximum black turnout, and a more public one to make the most of the white backing the Obama-Biden ticket already has. His rallies, appearances, and advertisements would benefit from featuring white faces, and they should be accompanied by endorsements from white military veterans, union leaders, police chiefs, and firemen. His black supporters will know what is going on, and not take this as a rebuff.